📈 TL;DR — Last Week in 60 Seconds
Stocks ended the week higher. A cooler inflation print kept hopes alive for a September rate cut from the U.S. central bank, helping the S&P 500 notch fresh records mid-week.
Tech outperformed on AI momentum (Oracle buzz didn’t hurt). Gold hovered near record territory as the dollar slipped. Bitcoin outpaced major assets. Big picture: markets are leaning on “cut soon, cut small” and strong megacaps, while small caps lag.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Quick Levels → Last week’s change
S&P 500: 6,584.29 | ↑1.33%
Nasdaq 100: 24,092.19 | ↑1.40%
Dow: 45,834.22 | ↑0.89%
Russell 2000: 2,397.06 | ↑0.06%
Gold/oz: $3,643.13 | ↑1.57%
Bitcoin (BTC): 116,042.80 | ↑4.41%
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 97.55 | ↓0.25%
🚀 Top Movers Last Week
Oracle (ORCL): ↑21.80% — Blew past expectations; said AI cloud backlog hit $455B, turbocharging growth hopes.
Tesla (TSLA): ↑12.85% — Optimism around energy/robotics plus Q3 delivery buzz powered sharp gains.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): ↑55.82% — Bid interest from Paramount Skydance reignited media consolidation hopes.
Nvidia (NVDA): ↑6.47% — AI trade reaccelerated after Oracle’s upbeat cloud outlook and upgrades.
Moderna (MRNA): ↓6.48% — Negative vaccine-safety headlines raised perceived regulatory risk across the space.
Europe Aerospace & Defence Index: ↑6.00% — Geopolitical tensions lifted defense demand expectations, extending the sector’s record run.
🗺 Market Map
Inflation cooled just enough to soothe markets. August CPI at 2.9% year-over-year and PPI −0.1% m/m reinforced disinflation vibes, helping stocks and crypto while pressuring the dollar.
Fed cut odds firmed into the Sept 16–17 meeting. Futures implied a strong chance of a 25 bp trim; focus shifts to guidance and the dots on 2025–26.
Energy mixed: crude steady, gas softer. Oil held near $62–63 as inventories rose; nat-gas fell on storage builds and mild demand.
AI leadership intact. Mega-cap growth and semis outperformed on the week as investors leaned into AI earnings power with macro winds at their back.
🛒 Buy Zone
Long-term investors: Consider the Equal-weight S&P (RSP*) on post-Fed breadth* potential. If the Fed cuts but signals “go slow,” smaller names can narrow the gap with megacaps. Guardrail: if yields jump on hawkish dots, breadth momentum likely pauses—size gradually.
Short-term traders: Watch a classic “Fed fade” setup around Wednesday’s decision and Powell’s Q&A. First moves after 2:00 p.m. ET often reverse into the close. Guardrail: anchor risk to the first-hour range and respect OPEX* flows Friday.
💡 Signal Spotlight
The Fed’s “dots” vs. the market
This week’s key signal is the Fed’s dot plot* in the SEP*, not the size of Wednesday’s cut. If dots show fewer future cuts than markets price, expect choppier stocks and steadier yields; if they roughly match, breadth may improve and small/mids can participate.
Watch the 2-yr yield and how the S&P trades in the last hour as tells. Translation: dots guide the path; your risk should reflect it. Click here to read the full story online.
👀 What to Watch
Mon, Sept 15 — Empire State survey (Sept): Early read on factory activity; signals for Q3 growth.
Tue, Sept 16 — U.S. Retail Sales (8:30 a.m. ET): Fresh read on consumer demand ahead of the Fed.
Wed, Sept 17 — Housing Starts/Permits (8:30 a.m. ET): Construction pulse informs growth and rates sensitivity.
Wed, Sept 17 — EIA Crude Inventories (10:30 a.m. ET): Oil balances can sway energy and inflation narratives.
Wed, Sept 17 — FOMC statement, SEP & Powell presser (2:00–3:00 p.m. ET): Path of cuts and guidance will set real-yield tone. Dots vs. market odds drive yields and stocks.
Thu, Sept 18 — Initial Jobless Claims & Philly Fed (8:30 a.m. ET): Fresh labor and manufacturing gauges; volatility risk if surprise.
Fri, Sept 19 — Monthly options expiration (OPEX): Hedging rolls can amplify moves into the close.
📚 Decoder
Basis point (bp): One hundredth of a percent; 1% equals 100 bp.
Breadth: Percentage of stocks rising; gauges how widespread a rally is.
CME FedWatch: Tool tracking market-implied probabilities of future Fed rate moves.
Dot plot: Fed officials’ projected year-end policy rates by year.
Equal-weight S&P (RSP): Index weighting each S&P 500 stock the same.
OPEX (options expiration): When options contracts expire; flows can swing prices.
SEP (Summary of Economic Projections): Fed projections for growth, inflation, unemployment, and rates.
🕔 That’s your 5-minute guide to start the week. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back to check-in on Thursday at 7 AM ET.
Educational only—not investment advice.
Thanks for reading 5 Minute Markets!
