📉 TL;DR — What Moved, What Didn’t
Stocks cooled after Monday’s records: S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 are modestly lower week-to-date, with small caps leading the pullback. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near ~4.15%, while the U.S. dollar ticked up.
Gold held near record territory as rate-cut hopes and geopolitical risks kept bids firm. Bitcoin slipped despite brisk ETF headlines. Friday’s PCE* inflation print is the week’s swing factor for rates, the dollar, and risk appetite.
Quick Levels → Week-to-date change
S&P 500: 6,637.98 | ↓0.24%
Nasdaq 100: 24,503.57 | ↓0.34%
Dow: 46,121.28 | ↓0.18%
Russell 2000: 2,434.95 | ↓0.45%
Gold/oz: 3,743.09 | ↑1.53%
Bitcoin (BTC): 113,307.10 | ↓1.68%
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 97.84 | ↑0.19%
🚀 Top Movers This Week
Source: Lithium Americas
Lithium Americas (LAC): ↑86.07% — Reports say Trump Administration seeking to take up to 10% stake to secure US lithium supply.
uniQure (QURE): ↑247.73% — Huntington’s gene therapy data showed meaningful slowing of disease.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): ↓15.97% — Indonesia mine accident slashes near-term copper/gold sales; stock sinks.
Energy Select ETF (XLE): ↑3.29% — Oil jumps on tighter supply/geopolitics; energy leads defensives.
Amazon (AMZN): ↓4.49% — FTC Prime-signup trial headlines + lingering AWS doubts weigh on shares.
😶 Market Mood
Choppy week so far. Big single-name shocks (lithium, biotech) grabbed headlines, while indexes drifted. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policy is not on a preset course, and the Fed will balance upside inflation risks with downside employment risks.
Translation: cuts aren’t automatic; data decide the pace. He also nodded to elevated asset valuations, which argues for caution if inflation runs hot. Friday’s PCE will steer yields and risk appetite into month-end.
Scenarios (next 1–2 weeks)
👌 Base Case (60%, Choppy): Powell’s “balanced risks” keeps markets range-bound; policy path stays data-dependent. A near-in-line PCE keeps yields steady and stocks rotating without a decisive trend break.
☀️ Bull Case (25%, Calm/Choppy): Cooler PCE eases inflation worry; Powell’s flexibility supports gradual cuts. Yields drift lower; breadth improves as buyers lean back into cyclicals.
🌩 Bear Case (15%, Stormy): Hot PCE revives inflation fear; Powell’s valuation caution bites. Yields jump, high-multiple leaders wobble, and risk premia widen into quarter-end.
🏠 Wall St. to Main St.
Mortgages: The 30-year average sits near 6.26%; refis now ~60% of apps, per Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS*). This eases monthly payments a bit.
Gas: The national average is ~$3.16/gal, down ~1% from last week; regional spikes (Pacific Northwest) didn’t move the national needle.
Rents: Typical U.S. asking rent $2,007; up 2.4% year-over-year; renters spend 28.9% of income—first affordability improvement since 2021 (ZORI*).
Paychecks: Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker* shows 4.1% median wage growth in August; job-switchers 4.4%, stayers 3.8%.
Groceries: Food at home up 2.7% year-over-year in August; meats/eggs category up 5.6%—pressure’s easing, not gone.
🚪 Weekly Close
Rotation watch: Commodity-tied groups showed relative resilience, while defensives and communication services lagged. Rate-sensitive areas were mixed. Friday’s income/spending and core PCE should steer yields next; next week’s factory and labor reads set the tone for early October.
Upcoming catalysts:
Thu, Sep 25 — Accenture earnings 8:00 AM ET: IT spend pulse for enterprise budgets.
Thu, Sep 25 — Costco earnings after close: real-time read on U.S. consumer baskets.
Fri, Sep 26 — Personal Income & Outlays + Core PCE: Fed’s key inflation gauge.
Tue, Sep 30 — Consumer Confidence: spending pulse into the holidays.
Tue, Sep 30 — JOLTS* (Aug): job openings signal hiring momentum.
Wed, Oct 1 — ADP jobs: early read on private payrolls.
Wed, Oct 1 — ISM Manufacturing PMI*: production and new orders snapshot.
Fri, Oct 3 — NFP (Employment Situation): headline labor report for September.
📚 Decoder
Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker: Median year-over-year wage growth for continuously employed workers, from Atlanta Fed.
JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey): Monthly job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs snapshot from BLS.
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index: Fed’s preferred inflation gauge tracking household spending price changes.
PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index): Monthly surveys tracking business activity; 50 marks expansion vs contraction.
PMMS (Primary Mortgage Market Survey): Freddie Mac’s weekly nationwide benchmark for average mortgage rates.
ZORI (Zillow Observed Rent Index): Zillow’s monthly measure of asking rents for new leases nationwide.
🕔 That wraps up your midweek 5-minute brief. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back before opening bell next Monday, at 7 AM ET. Meanwhile, be sure to check out our “3 after 5” weekly recap online Saturday afternoon.
Educational only—not investment advice.
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