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📈 TL;DR – The Week in 60 Seconds
Stocks ended the week higher, but trade policy stole the spotlight. The Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s emergency tariffs, and weekend chatter about a fresh global tariff plan added a new layer of uncertainty. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 led, while small caps lagged.
Treasury yields bounced as investors debated whether the Fed can cut soon with inflation still sticky. That uncertainty helped push gold higher and sent silver surging, while the dollar stayed firm. This week’s swing factors: Nvidia earnings, more inflation data like PPI*, and any clearer details on the tariff path.
Quick Levels → Last week’s change
S&P 500: 6,909.52 | ↑1.07% Nasdaq 100: 25,012.62 | ↑1.13% Dow: 49,625.98 | ↑0.25% Russell 2000: 2,663.78 | ↑0.65% | Gold/oz: $5,138 | ↑1.30% Silver/oz: $86.02 | ↑9.26% Bitcoin: $65,859 | ↓1.70% U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 97.79 | ↑0.94% |
🚀 Top Movers Last Week
Source: Anthropic
ImmunityBio (IBRX) ↑46.34% — EU cleared Anktiva with BCG for bladder cancer, fueling optimism on global rollout.
Global Payments Inc (GPN) ↑20.43% — Earnings beat, strong 2026 outlook, and $2.5B buyback plan sparked a sharp rerating.
Moderna (MRNA) ↑18.09% — FDA reversed course and agreed to review Moderna’s seasonal flu vaccine filing.
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) ↑15.63% — Record 2025 results plus dividend hike, stock split, and data-center push drew buyers.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) ↑12.52% — Q4 profit beat plus an 8% dividend hike eased debt worries, and revived the “Buffett premium” again.
CrowdStrike (CRWD) ↓9.55% — Cybersecurity stocks slid after Anthropic unveiled Claude Code Security, stirring disruption fears.
🗺 Market Map
Inflation pulse: December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)* prices rose 0.4% m/m and 2.9% y/y; core PCE* held at 0.4% m/m and 3.0% y/y—hard for the Fed to relax anytime soon.
GDP* growth cooled: Q4 2025 rose at a 1.4% annual rate, down from 4.4% in Q3. Lower federal spending was a drag, but consumer demand stayed positive.
Wholesale check-in: Friday brings the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January. Markets treat it as an early read on pipeline inflation, which can seep into consumer prices later and swing rate expectations quickly.
AI bellwether: Nvidia reports FY26 Q4 results Wednesday after-hours, and the focus is guidance on data-center demand and margins. Big surprises here can move semiconductors—and the Nasdaq—fast.
Scenarios (next 1–2 weeks)
👌 Base Case (Choppy): PPI prints close to forecasts and Nvidia’s results are “good enough.” Rates stay in a narrow range, so the S&P 500 drifts slightly higher, with leadership rotating between tech and defensives most days.
☀️ Bull Case (Calm): PPI cools enough to revive the “cuts later” story, and Nvidia raises guidance while sounding confident on AI demand. Rates ease, smaller stocks and economy-sensitive sectors rise, and pullbacks get bought quickly, pushing indexes back toward recent highs.
🌩 Bear Case (Stormy): PPI surprises hot or Nvidia’s outlook hints at slower data-center spending or tighter margins. Markets quickly price fewer Fed cuts, pushing yields up and pressuring high-valuation tech and small caps.
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🏠 Wall St. to Main St.
Mortgage shoppers: Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.01% (Feb 19), down from 6.09% prior week.
At the pump: AAA national average regular gas was $2.934/gallon on Feb 22—still below last year.
Prices: January CPI* shows shelter up 3.0% year-over-year, food up 2.9%, and airline fares up 6.5% in a month—rent and travel remain the wallet pinch-points.
Savings cushions: The personal saving rate was 3.6% in December—less buffer if layoffs rise or bills jump.
Car loans: Bankrate puts a 60-month new-car rate around 7.01% (Feb 11), so monthly payments stay heavy even if sticker prices cool.
💡 Signal Spotlight
Tariff Whiplash: Supreme Court Says No; Trump Re-routes
The Supreme Court ruled the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)* doesn’t let presidents slap on broad tariffs. Trump responded by rolling out a temporary import surcharge under Section 122*—10% at first, then lifted to 15% ahead of its Feb 24 start.
For markets, this isn’t “tariffs off.” It’s “tariffs re-labeled,” which keeps company pricing plans, margins, and inflation math in flux. The other overhang: refunds—Penn Wharton estimates up to ~$175B could be at stake.
👀 Weekly Outlook
Markets are walking a tightrope between solid corporate results and policy-driven curveballs. This week’s mood swings may come less from the economy and more from trade headlines that change the rules mid-game.
Big tech results—especially Nvidia—can still pull the whole market around, but investors may treat “good numbers” cautiously if companies sound unsure about pricing and supply chains. If bond yields jump on inflation surprises, the market’s leadership could rotate quickly again.
What to Watch:
Mon, Feb 23 — Factory Orders (Dec): checks manufacturing demand after year-end surge.
Tue, Feb 24 — Case-Shiller home prices: housing trend check as rates stay high.
Tue, Feb 24 — Consumer Confidence: read on spending appetite and job worries.
Tue, Feb 24 — Home Depot earnings: DIY demand and housing-linked guidance.
Tue, Feb 24 — Trump State of the Union: trade tone could move dollar and stocks.
Wed, Feb 25 — Nvidia earnings: AI spending signals and margin durability.
Thu, Feb 26 — Initial jobless claims: labor cooling supports cuts; re-tightening delays them.
Fri, Feb 27 — PPI (Jan): wholesale inflation that can spill into consumer prices.
📚 Decoder
Core PCE: PCE inflation excluding food and energy; Fed’s preferred gauge.
CPI (Consumer Price Index): Monthly inflation gauge; hotter prints can push rates higher.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product): Total value of goods and services produced in the economy.
IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act): U.S. law granting emergency economic powers, not general tariff power.
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures): Inflation gauge based on what households actually spend money on.
PPI (Producer Price Index): Inflation measure tracking prices businesses receive for their output.
Section 122: Trade Act rule allowing temporary broad tariffs for balance-of-payments issues.
🕔 That wraps up your 5-minute brief for the week. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back to catch you up on the market, next Monday at 7 AM ET.
Educational only—not investment advice.
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