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📈 TL;DR — What Moved, What Didn’t
Stocks edged higher into midweek, keeping the S&P 500 near record territory. A weak private-sector jobs read strengthened bets that the U.S. central bank will cut rates next week. Smaller companies outperformed, while megacaps were mixed. Bond yields eased, and the dollar slipped again. Gold was little changed after Tuesday’s dip. Bitcoin rebounded this week as risk appetite improved.
Big picture: markets are trading the “bad-ish” jobs news as good for rates, keeping the year-end rally alive—ahead of today’s ISM* services report and next week’s Fed policy meeting.
Quick Levels → Week-to-date change
S&P 500: 6,849.72 | ↑0.01%
Nasdaq 100: 25,606.54 | ↑0.67%
Dow: 47,882.90 | ↑0.35%
Russell 2000: 2,512.14 | ↑0.47%
Gold/oz: $4,182 | ↓0.79%
Bitcoin (BTC): $93,050 | ↑2.95%
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): 98.87 | ↓0.61%
🚀 Top Movers This Week
Microchip Technology (MCHP) ↑18.72% — Raised sales and profit outlook; bookings and backlog improved, sparking biggest S&P 500 gain.
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) ↑16.73% — Chip strength spilled into auto/industrial names; improving sentiment after peer guidance lifted outlooks.
ON Semiconductor (ON) ↑13.75% — Followed peers higher on AI-chip optimism and sector upgrades; traders chased laggards.
Marvell (MRVL) ↑12.08% — Earnings beat plus $3.25B Celestial AI deal, including Amazon warrant, boosted AI hopes.
Intel (INTC) ↑7.89% — Continued rally on reports Apple may use Intel’s 18A foundry for M-series; bullish options and policy tailwinds.
Symbotic (SYM) ↓12.59% — Rebounded Wednesday after sharp Goldman downgrade Tuesday; volatility persisted around secondary offering chatter.
😶 Market Mood
Source: Federal Reserve
Signals are mixed. ISM data split: factories contracted (48.2) while services kept expanding (52.6). Private payrolls fell 32,000 in November, and claims sit in the low-200Ks—firings look to be picking up at the margin, not surging. Bond yields eased and the dollar faded as traders priced a cooler labor pulse.
The next hinge, Friday’s delayed Personal Income & Outlays for September—Core PCE* (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), will steer rate-cut odds into year-end.
Scenarios (next 1–2 weeks)
👌 Base Case (Calm): Rangebound risk as the 10-year holds ~4.0–4.2%; services stay in expansion while manufacturing stabilizes. Core PCE near ~2.9% y/y keeps the Fed on hold; leadership favors quality growth and cash-generative cyclicals.
☀️ Bull Case (Choppy): Core PCE cools toward 2.7–2.8% and services momentum persists; 10-year drifts toward ~3.90% and the dollar softens. Breadth improves, small caps and credit rally, and dip-buying extends into year-end.
🌩 Bear Case (Stormy): Core PCE reaccelerates or claims jump; 10-year pops above ~4.20% and the dollar firms. Multiple pressure hits long-duration tech; defensives and cash outperform as hedging rises and holiday liquidity thins.
🔍 Chart of the Week
The Gatekeeper for Risk
Symbol: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (DGS10)
Timeframe: Daily, 3 months through Dec 3, 2025
Key levels: 4.00% (support), 4.20% (resistance), 3.90–3.95% (stretch support)
Why it matters: Our base case leans on yields staying contained. US10Y sits near 4.08% as of the early morning. A cooler Core PCE on Friday could crack 4.00% and aid multiples; a hot print risks a rebound toward 4.20% and pressure on growth.
🏠 Wall St. to Main St.
Gas: National average is $2.99/gal (regular), the lowest in roughly 4 years, thanks to soft oil prices. Cheaper fill-ups ease delivery costs for goods also.
Mortgages: 30-year fixed averaged 6.23% (week of Nov 26); today’s update hits at noon ET. Refinancing math improves if this drift continues.
Rents: Apartment List reports the national median ↓1.0% m/m in November to $1,367 as supply loosens.
Natural gas: Prices are choppy but below recent peaks, which could temper some winter heating bills depending on region.
Debt: Household balances hit $18.59T in Q3; delinquency rates stayed elevated. Budget buffers matter.
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🚪 Weekly Close
Under the hood, leadership is tilting toward cyclicals while investors still park cash in T-bill and ultra-short ETFs—equity and fixed-income funds both drew money last week. Oil’s small rebound on geopolitical headlines bears watching for travel and shipping costs. Into next week, PCE, Treasury supply, and the Fed meeting loom large. Signals of rate path clarity will likely steer sector rotation.
What to watch:
Thu, Dec 4 — Weekly jobless claims: fastest labor signal; persistent rises hint demand is fading.
Fri, Dec 5 — Personal Income & Outlays* (Sept): core PCE path; consumer cashflow. Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; a hot print risks delaying easing.
Fri, Dec 5 — Univ. of Michigan sentiment (prelim): consumer mood, inflation expectations.
Tue, Dec 9 — 10-year note auction: demand test for longer-term yields.
Tue, Dec 9 — JOLTS job openings (Oct): labor-demand pulse.
Tue–Wed, Dec 9–10 — FOMC meeting and press conference: rate decision and guidance into year-end.
📚 Decoder
Core PCE: Inflation measure excluding food and energy.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Factory activity index; 50 = expansion line.
ISM Services PMI: Services-sector activity index; 50 = expansion line.
Personal Income & Outlays: Monthly BEA report of income, spending, savings, and PCE inflation.
🕔 That wraps up your midweek 5-minute brief. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back before opening bell next Monday, at 7 AM ET. Be on the lookout for your next update from 5 Minute Markets.
Educational only—not investment advice.
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