📈 TL;DR — What Moved, What Didn’t
AI trade hit a pothole again. Mega-cap tech slid as worries grew that data-center spending may cool. That dragged the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 lower week-to-date. Small caps slipped as well. Rates stayed jumpy after a shutdown-delayed BLS Employment Situation* report (see Market Mood), while Bitcoin fell with stocks into Wednesday’s close.
Oil bounced after President Trump ordered a blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers, raising fresh supply-risk chatter. Gold kept climbing as investors looked for a safety net when stocks wobble. Silver also tagged a record, showing the metals bid isn’t just a gold story.
Quick Levels → Week-to-date change
S&P 500: 6,721.42 | ↓1.55%
Nasdaq 100: 24,647.61 | ↓2.18%
Dow: 47,885.98 | ↓1.18%
Russell 2000: 2,492.29 | ↓2.32%
Gold/oz: $4,325 | ↑0.60%
Bitcoin (BTC): $87,274 | ↓1.02%
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): 98.39 | ↓0.01%
🚀 Top Movers This Week
Bet Noire/Getty Images
Micron (MU) ↑10.07% (after-hours Weds.) — Fell into earnings print, then surged after-hours on blowout results and bullish HBM demand outlook.
Silver (XAGUSD) ↑6.72% (↑36% since Nov.) — Ripped to fresh records above ~$66/oz on tight supply + strong industrial demand (i.e. solar panels and electronics).
Texas Pacific Land (TPL) ↑5.29% — AI data-center partnership headlines sparked fresh enthusiasm beyond oil royalties and water assets.
ServiceNow (NOW) ↓9.56% — Slid after reports it’s near a $7B Armis deal; investors balked at spend.
Strategy (MSTR) ↓9.11% — Dropped as Bitcoin slipped and its “buy more BTC” funding model got questioned.
Oracle (ORCL) ↓6.06% — Oracle sank after reports its Michigan data-center project was paused, reviving execution worries.
😤 Market Mood
Markets spent the week repricing “growth” assumptions. Tuesday’s Employment Situation report showed payrolls up 64k and unemployment at 4.6%, with wage growth still 3.5% year-over-year—steady, not sizzling.
Investors now turn to today’s CPI (Consumer Price Index)* print at 8:30 a.m. ET; economists expect headline CPI around 3.1% year-over-year and core CPI* near 3.0%, with the shutdown limiting month-to-month details. The 10-year Treasury yield* stayed near 4.15%, but the VIX jumped toward 17–18, keeping dips “buyable” only for the brave. ETF flows remain supportive, yet choppy.
Scenarios (next 1–2 weeks)
👌 Base Case (Calm): CPI lands near expectations; yields stay boxed around 4.10–4.20%. Stocks chop, with investors preferring cash-rich companies. A small late-December bid is possible, but leadership stays narrow.
☀️ Bull Case (Choppy): CPI surprises cooler; yields slip under ~4.10%. That eases pressure on long-duration growth (stocks whose value depends on future profits). Volatility fades, and the rally broadens beyond a handful of mega-caps.
🌩 Bear Case (Stormy): Hot CPI (or sticky core CPI) pushes yields above ~4.20%. Borrowing costs climb, and growth stocks get hit again. Defensives hold up better, and volatility can jump quickly if support breaks.
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🔍 Chart of the Week
US 10-Year Yield — The Market’s Gravity
Symbol: US 10-Yr Treasury yield (DGS10)
Timeframe: Daily, last 3 months through Dec 17, 2025
Key levels: 4.10% support, 4.20% resistance (recent “box” the market keeps returning to)
Why it matters: The 10-year yield sits near 4.13% overnight. If CPI keeps it below 4.20%, stocks can stabilize. A break above 4.20% usually pressures growth; below 4.10% is a green light.
🏠 Wall St. to Main St.
Gas: A small win. AAA’s national average for regular is ~$2.91 (as of 12/17), down from $2.94 a week ago.
Home loans: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.22% (as of 12/11). That keeps monthly payments heavy for new buyers and refinancers.
Card APRs: Average credit-card rate sits near 19.75%—carry balances sparingly.
Energy: WTI is near $56 after fresh supply headlines; utility bills lag oil moves.
Groceries: Latest official read (September) showed ~2.7% grocery inflation; Today’s CPI update will refresh the picture.
🚪 Weekly Close
This week’s rotation looked like a classic “steady over splashy” shift. Technology (↓6.61%) led the slide, while Communication Services and Energy also fell back. Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (↑1.82%) and Basic Materials held up better, with Financial and Healthcare modestly positive.
Translation: investors weren’t fleeing everything—they were just paying up less for future growth and leaning into sturdier demand. With holiday trading ahead, smaller headlines can move markets more than usual.
What to watch:
Thu, Dec 18 — CPI (Nov.): first inflation print post-Fed; data quality caveats still apply.
Thu, Dec 18 — Jobless claims*: labor gauge; watch for seasonal noise vs trend, and early signal on layoffs before year-end.
Thu, Dec 18 — Philly Fed index: quick check on factory momentum.
Fri, Dec 19 — Consumer Expenditures (Annual 2024): shows where households spent money; hints at inflation and retail demand.
Fri, Dec 19 — Michigan Consumer Survey (final): confidence and inflation expectations.
Fri, Dec 19 — Existing-home sales (Nov): Turnover and affordability check as mortgage rates ease.
Fri, Dec 19 — Quadruple witching: options expirations can amplify market moves into the close.
Tue, Dec 23 — Q3 GDP (delayed): US growth update with inflation context.
Tue, Dec 23 — Durable goods (delayed): business spending pulse, especially equipment orders.
📚 Decoder
CPI (Consumer Price Index): Monthly gauge of consumer inflation. Tracks average price changes for household goods and services.
Core CPI: CPI excluding food and energy; used to gauge underlying inflation.
Employment Situation report: Monthly jobs report on payrolls, unemployment, and wages.
Jobless claims: Weekly count of people filing first-time unemployment benefits.
10-year Treasury yield: Interest rate on 10-year U.S. government bonds; key borrowing benchmark.
🕔 That wraps up your midweek 5-minute brief. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back before opening bell next Monday, at 7 AM ET. Be on the lookout for your next update from 5 Minute Markets.
Educational only—not investment advice.
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