📈 TL;DR — What Moved, What Didn’t
Stocks kept the Santa rally rolling in a holiday-shortened week. Investors leaned “risk-on,” but the leadership was picky: large growth led, while small caps lagged. Tuesday’s Q3 GDP* report showed the U.S. economy grew at a 4.3% annual pace in Q3, and the S&P 500 hit a fresh record close.
Wednesday extended the streak: the S&P and Dow finished at new all-time highs, even with thin trading ahead of Christmas. Gold & Silver reached new records, while the U.S. dollar softened. Meanwhile, ETF flows showed classic year-end rebalancing, with big index redemptions, even as prices held up. Markets are closed today for the holiday.
Quick Levels → Week-to-date change
S&P 500: 6,932.04 | ↑1.43%
Nasdaq 100: 25,656.15 | ↑1.22%
Dow: 48,731.17 | ↑1.24%
Russell 2000: 2,548.08 | ↑0.74%
Gold/oz: $4,479 | ↑3.24%
Bitcoin (BTC): $87,365 | ↓1.45%
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): 97.95 | ↓0.78%
🚀 Top Movers This Week
Source: Michael Siluk/Alamy
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) ↑11.85% — Closed KinetX acquisition; investors eye 2026 lunar mission cadence. Executive orders aimed at ensuring America’s superiority in space, kept Space-stock momentum strong in thin volume.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) ↑9.30% — U.S. approval of a GLP-1 weight-loss pill (previously only injectable) stoked optimism and sparked a sharp rebound.
Micron (MU) ↑7.81% — Earnings beat and upbeat AI-memory demand kept the chip-upgrade story alive.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) ↑5.64% — Copper prices flirted with record highs; Freeport hit a 15-month high on momentum.
Trump Media & Technology (DJT) ↓11.06% — Post-merger euphoria faded; profit-taking hit harder with low liquidity before Christmas break.
😎 Market Mood
Markets spent this week reacting to the data, not the headlines. The BEA’s* Q3 GDP initial estimate came in at 4.3% (annually), pointing to sturdy demand. But the inflation side was warmer: Core PCE* (prices excluding food and energy) ran at a 2.9% pace in Q3, keeping rate-cut hopes from getting too excited.
Then weekly jobless claims* fell to 214,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.923M—low layoffs, softer hiring. Treasuries barely moved after the report, a sign that investors see “steady” not “recession.” Big tech held leadership, while small caps lagged as funding costs stayed elevated.
Scenarios (next 1–2 weeks)
👌 Base Case (Calm): Growth supports earnings, but inflation keeps the Fed patient. Stocks grind sideways with narrow leadership. If yields stay contained after year-end data, dips likely find buyers rather than turning into a bigger slide.
☀️ Bull Case (Choppy): Inflation cools in the next read, and continuing claims stop climbing. Yields ease, giving growth stocks more oxygen. A push toward the next round-number level becomes realistic if breadth improves beyond the mega-caps.
🌩 Bear Case (Stormy): Inflation re-accelerates or jobless claims jump post-holiday. Yields pop, pressuring high-priced tech first. Investors rotate defensive and raise cash. A decisive break below support would shift the tone from “pause” to “protect profits.”
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🔍 Chart of the Week
Holiday Lid on Valuations
Symbol: US 10-Yr Treasury yield (DGS10)
Timeframe: Daily, last 3 months through Dec 24, 2025
Key levels: 4.00% (support), 4.10% (pivot), 4.20% (resistance)
Why it matters: A sustained move above ~4.20% tightens valuations and encourages rotation; a drop back below 4.00% eases pressure and supports growth stocks and Gold.
🏠 Wall St. to Main St.
Mortgage check: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.18%. Small dip, still pricey for first-time buyers.
Gas station relief: AAA’s national average is about $2.85/gal; a tailwind for holiday driving budgets.
Grocery inflation cooled: “Food at home” ran ↑1.9% year-over-year in November, slower than earlier in 2025. Helps budgets—even if overall prices are still high versus 2020–2022.
Precious metals rally: With gold, silver, and copper near or above record highs, costs can creep up for jewelry, electronics, home wiring, appliances, and car/EV parts—often first seen in repairs and renovation quotes.
🚪 Weekly Close
This week’s leadership stayed concentrated in Technology (↑4.98%), followed by Communication Services, Basic Materials, and Industrials—while Consumer Defensive (↓1.33%) lagged. That “growth-first” sector mix also fits the 2025 backdrop: investors preferred offense, over bunker plays.
One caution: year-end rebalancing* plus lighter liquidity can turn small headlines into bigger swings around support and resistance levels. Keep an eye on rates: the 10-year near 4.14% is still the market’s mood thermostat.
What to watch:
Thu, Dec 25 — U.S. markets closed (Christmas)
Fri, Dec 26 — Regular trading resumes: watch for “catch-up” moves on light volume.
Mon, Dec 29 — Pending Home Sales: housing demand check with rates still high.
Mon, Dec 29 — Dallas Fed survey: fresh read on factory demand/pricing.
Tue, Dec 30 — Chicago PMI: late-month activity pulse for manufacturing.
Tue, Dec 30 — State JOLTS* (State Job Openings and Labor Turnover): labor demand by state.
Thu, Jan 1 — U.S. markets closed (New Year’s Day)
📚 Decoder
BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis): Publishes GDP, trade, income, and spending data.
Core PCE: Inflation gauge excluding food and energy; Fed watches closely.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product): Total output of the economy; growth signal for markets.
Jobless claims: Weekly count of people filing first-time unemployment benefits.
JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey): Tracks openings, quits, layoffs; signals labor demand strength.
Year-end rebalancing: Investors reset portfolio weights as markets and calendar roll over.
🕔 That wraps up your midweek 5-minute brief. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back before opening bell next Monday, at 7 AM ET. Be on the lookout for your next update from 5 Minute Markets.
Educational only—not investment advice.
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