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📉 TL;DR – The Week in 60 Seconds
Stocks took a breather after last week’s record highs: the S&P 500 finished the week down as investors replayed one question—does AI help profits…or crush them? A sharp Thursday selloff hit big tech and spread into smaller companies, even as Friday’s cooler inflation report helped stabilize the tape.
Gold jumped back above $5,000/oz, but Bitcoin cooled after early-week strength. This week, the market’s mood will hinge on more data, how many Fed speakers push back on rate-cut hopes, and whether tech can prove the AI story is still a tailwind, not a wrecking ball.
Quick Levels → Last week’s change
S&P 500: 6,836.18 | ↓1.39% Nasdaq 100: 24,732.73 | ↓1.37% Dow: 49,500.94 | ↓1.23% Russell 2000: 2,646.70 | ↓0.89% | Gold/oz: $5,004 | ↑1.57% Silver/oz: $77.12 | ↓0.63% Bitcoin: $68,658 | ↓2.14% US Dollar Index (DXY): 96.88 | ↓0.77% |
🚀 Top Movers Last Week
Source: Oracle
Vertiv (VRT) ↑19.92% — Strong earnings, record backlog, and 2026 outlook soothed fears AI data-center spending is slowing.
Oracle (ORCL) ↑12.13% — Investors cheered its plan to raise $45–$50B for AI cloud buildout, meeting contracted demand.
Constellation Energy (CEG) ↑10.33% — Data-center power deals, including new 380-MW agreement with CyrusOne revived the AI-electricity growth story.
Applied Materials (AMAT) ↑10.05% — Blowout quarter and upbeat guidance, as AI-driven chip demand drives tool orders higher.
Mattel (MAT) ↓23.36% — Weak profit forecast and holiday-quarter miss slammed shares despite a big buyback plan.
Apple (AAPL) ↓8.03% — Siri AI upgrade delays and fresh FTC questions around Apple News hit investor confidence.
🗺 Market Map
Jobs check: January Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)* rose by 130,000; unemployment held at 4.3%. Hiring leaned on health care and construction, while federal jobs fell. That mix keeps the Fed patient, not panicked.
Inflation pulse: January Consumer Price Index (CPI)* was ↑0.20% m/m and ↑2.40% y/y; “core” CPI* ran ↑0.30% m/m and ↑2.50% y/y. Shelter stayed warm, but energy prices fell. That’s news, but not a victory lap.
Friday’s data brings Gross Domestic Product (GDP)* (Q4 advance estimate) plus Personal Income & Outlays, which includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)* inflation read. Strong growth with sticky inflation tends to push yields higher.
Under the hood, AI “infrastructure” led: power, cooling, and chip equipment names rallied on upbeat guidance, while some networking hardware lagged. That split matters because it hints where spending is real today.
Scenarios (next 1–2 weeks)
👌 Base Case (Choppy): Markets drift, then react to Friday’s GDP + PCE. If growth and inflation land close to expectations, yields stay contained and stocks chop sideways—big swings in single names, but index-level moves remain manageable.
☀️ Bull Case (Calm): GDP looks solid while PCE cools further, reviving the idea of mid-year interest-rate cuts. Lower yields help tech and housing-related stocks, and credit spreads tighten—confirming investors feel more comfortable taking risk.
🌩 Bear Case (Stormy): GDP surprises hot or PCE re-accelerates, pushing yields higher fast. That usually pressures high-valuation growth stocks and small caps, while the dollar firms. The spark could be one ugly inflation component.
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🏠 Wall St. to Main St.
Housing: Existing-home sales fell 8.4% in January to a 3.91M annual pace; median price $396,800 and inventory 1.22M kept affordability tight.
Car loans: Finance-company rates were ~7.22% (60-month) and ~7.52% (72-month) in 2025 Q4—still pricey for new wheels.
Groceries: Prices were ↑2.9% year-over-year in January CPI, so food-at-home bills are still rising—just not like 2022.
Paychecks: Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in January and are up 3.7% over the past year.
Gas: Regular gasoline averaged $2.90/gal (week of Feb 9), down from $3.019 in early November.
💡 Signal Spotlight
AI’s next phase: spending, not slogans
Oracle’s plan to raise $45–$50B this year is a loud reminder that “AI” is now a construction project. The company says the money (a mix of debt and new shares) is aimed at building cloud capacity for big customers—and at protecting its investment-grade rating* while it does it.
The opportunity: more real demand for chips, power, and data-center gear. The risk: bigger balance sheets mean less room for error if growth cools.
👀 Weekly Outlook
A holiday-shortened week, but not a quiet one. Investors will juggle a backlog of major data, fresh Federal Reserve minutes, and a heavy dose of retail/industrial earnings. The big question is whether the economy is cooling enough to ease inflation pressure—without cooling so much that profits wobble.
Watch for markets to react less to headlines and more to “details” (like inflation trends inside PCE and the consumer line-items inside GDP). If reactions feel jumpy, that’s the tell.
What to Watch:
Mon, Feb 16 — U.S. markets closed (Presidents Day): thinner liquidity all week.
Tue, Feb 17 — Retail Sales: checks whether consumers kept spending in January.
Wed, Feb 18 — FOMC Meeting Minutes: clues on the Federal Reserve (Fed) patience.
Wed, Feb 18 — Housing starts update (Nov/Dec): construction momentum and shelter supply signal.
Thu, Feb 19 — Jobless claims + Philly Fed: labor and activity pulse.
Thu, Feb 19 — Walmart + Deere earnings: consumer health vs. industrial demand check.
Fri, Feb 20 — GDP (Q4 advance): growth reality-check after a noisy data stretch.
Fri, Feb 20 — PCE inflation (Dec): the Fed’s preferred inflation yardstick.
📚 Decoder
CPI (Consumer Price Index): Monthly inflation gauge; hotter prints can push rates higher.
Core CPI: CPI excluding food and energy; tracks underlying inflation trend.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product): Total value of goods and services produced in the economy.
Investment-grade rating: Credit rating signaling relatively low default risk for borrowers.
NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls): Monthly U.S. jobs gain excluding farm workers and a few categories.
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures): Inflation gauge based on what households actually spend money on.
🕔 That wraps up your 5-minute brief for the week. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back to catch you up on the market, next Monday at 7 AM ET.
Educational only—not investment advice.
Thanks for reading 5 Minute Markets!
