📈 TL;DR — What Moved, What Didn’t
Stocks kept the Thanksgiving week climb alive through Wednesday. Big tech helped, but small caps led. The S&P 500 is up week-to-date, and the Dow notched another strong close. Traders now see ~85% odds of a U.S. central bank rate cut in December—nearly double last week—lifting risk appetite.
Thin holiday volume likely amplified moves. Keep an eye on Friday’s half-day for any retail-spending reads bleeding into next week.
Quick Levels → Week-to-date change
S&P 500: 6,812.61 | ↑3.17%
Nasdaq 100: 25,236.94 | ↑4.11%
Dow: 47,427.12 | ↑2.56%
Russell 2000: 2,486.12 | ↑4.92%
Gold/oz: $4,159 | ↑2.33%
Bitcoin (BTC): $91,442 | ↑5.29%
DXY (U.S. Dollar index): 99.56 | ↓0.63%
🚀 Top Movers This Week
Source: AP Photo/Mark Lennihan
Robinhood (HOOD) ↑19.48% — Surged after deal to acquire 90% of LedgerX and launch prediction-markets exchange JV with Susquehanna.
Broadcom (AVGO) ↑16.86% — Spiked as AI rebound and Alphabet’s Gemini 3 momentum lifted semis; led S&P Monday.
Western Digital (WDC) ↑13.33% — Extended gains as AI data-center demand boosts HDD orders; storage names outperformed in November.
Coinbase (COIN) ↑10.22% — Climbed with Bitcoin’s rebound above $89k and firmer December Fed-cut bets this week.
Zscaler (ZS) ↓8.38% — Earnings beat, but guidance and billings tone disappointed; high-multiple software sold.
😎 Market Mood
Weaker consumer sentiment and the Fed’s latest Beige Book* both pointed to softer demand and hiring, nudging markets toward easier policy. CME FedWatch* shows the odds of a December cut jumping this week (roughly 80–85%). The 10-year Treasury hovered near 4.00%, keeping financial conditions from tightening.
Small-cap flows turned supportive, with fresh IWM* bets midweek. Thin holiday liquidity still magnifies intraday swings, but the tone stayed constructive as investors weighed cooler anecdotes and confidence data against upcoming payrolls and inflation prints.
Scenarios (next 1–2 weeks)
👌 Base Case (Calm): Yields orbit ~4%; Beige Book softness and weak confidence keep one December cut highly likely; small-caps/quality factor hold leadership; watch jobs and inflation to confirm trend.
☀️ Bull Case (Choppy): Another soft sentiment or pricing read pushes odds higher; 10-year dips below ~3.95%; cyclicals and small-caps extend outperformance as flows persist.
🌩 Bear Case (Stormy): Hot data or hawkish guidance knocks cut odds lower; 10-year pops above ~4.10%; equities wobble and small-caps lag as liquidity thins.
🔍 Chart of the Week
4% Pivot?
Symbol: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (DGS10)
Timeframe: Daily, 3 months through Nov 26, 2025.
Key levels: 4.00% (pivot), 3.95% (support), 4.20% (resistance)
Why it matters: Our base case leans on easier financial conditions. A sustained break below ~3.95% would aid stocks; a push above ~4.20% risks a risk-off wobble.
🏠 Wall St. to Main St.
30-year mortgage rates eased to 6.23%, improving affordability a bit for buyers.
Grocery inflation looks cooler: fruits/vegetables ↑1.3% YoY and cereals/bakery ↑1.6% YoY in the latest CPI.
Gas is cheaper than a month ago; the national average sits near $3.03/gal.
Credit-card APRs remain steep around 19.86%. Retailers are pushing heavy promotions, with record shoppers expected through Black Friday–Cyber Monday.
Wholesale used-car prices ticked ↑1.1% in mid-November; retail relief may lag.
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🚪 Weekly Close
Holiday-shortened trading kept price moves orderly, while household indicators leaned mixed: lower mortgage rates and gas offer some relief, but borrowing costs on cards stay high. Jobless claims dipped again, hinting at low layoffs even as hiring cools.
Next up: a dense early-December data run—manufacturing, private-payrolls, job openings, and a rescheduled jobs report. Expect headlines to swing rate-cut odds, which could sway yields, the dollar, and equity leadership. Keep watch on how softer prices (gas, some groceries) balance with still-elevated financing costs.
What to watch:
Thu-Fri, Nov 27-28 — U.S. markets closed (Thanksgiving); Early U.S. market close (Fri, 1 PM ET): Thin liquidity can magnify moves.
Sun, Nov 30 — OPEC+ meeting: Any quota tweak steers oil, inflation expectations, and rate-cut odds.
Mon, Dec 1 — ISM Manufacturing PMI: factory momentum read; services inflation and demand breadth check.
Wed, Dec 3 — ADP Non-Farm payrolls: private payroll pulse before government data.
Fri, Dec 5 — Personal Income & Outlays (Sept): Core PCE* path; consumer cashflow.
📚 Decoder
Beige Book: Fed districts’ anecdotes on growth, prices, and hiring conditions.
Core PCE: Fed-watched inflation excluding food and energy; signals underlying trend.
FedWatch: CME tool estimating market-implied odds of Fed decisions.
IWM: iShares Russell 2000 ETF; proxy for U.S. small-cap stocks.
🕔 That wraps up your midweek 5-minute brief. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back before opening bell next Monday, at 7 AM ET. Be on the lookout for your next update from 5 Minute Markets.
Educational only—not investment advice.
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