In partnership with
📉 TL;DR — What Moved, What Didn’t
Stocks are down week-to-date as the dollar firmed and small caps lagged. Nvidia’s earnings landed: record quarterly revenue and still-hot AI demand, keeping mega-cap tech in focus. Bitcoin slipped after last week’s pop, while gold was roughly flat. The Dow fell the most, pulled by cyclicals; the Nasdaq 100 held up better but is still lower.
With the government releases quiet this week, markets leaned on earnings and positioning more than new data. Big picture: risk appetite softened, not snapped. Watch if dollar strength tightens financial conditions into month-end.
Quick Levels → Week-to-date change
S&P 500: 6,642.16 | ↓1.37%
Nasdaq 100: 24,640.52 | ↓1.47%
Dow: 46,138.77 | ↓2.14%
Russell 2000: 2,347.89 | ↓1.69%
Gold/oz: $4,061 | ↓0.63%
Bitcoin (BTC): $92,086 | ↓2.34%
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): 100.11 | ↑0.85%
🚀 Top Movers This Week
Exact Sciences (EXAS) ↑28.57% — Reports show Abbott is weighing a takeover; speculation drove heavy volume.
Albemarle (ALB) ↑9.15% — Lithium peers flagged firmer pricing; BMO lifted price target.
Alphabet (GOOGL) ↑5.93% — Berkshire’s new stake and buzz around Gemini 3/Antigravity lifted sentiment.
Constellation Energy (CEG) ↑5.60% — Nuclear restart momentum after a $1B federal loan tied to Three Mile Island upgrade.
AMD (AMD) ↓9.42% — Chips sagged into Nvidia’s results; traders de-risked AI plays.
Home Depot (HD) ↓7.69% — Outlook cut and soft big-ticket demand hit the shares.
😶 Market Mood
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks are choppy week-to-date. Nvidia’s blowout quarter (revenue $57.0B; EPS $1.30) steadied AI sentiment, but gains haven’t flipped the tape broadly. Fed minutes (Oct 28–29) showed plans to end balance-sheet runoff* Dec 1; members stressed two-sided risks and data dependence. The 10-year yield hovers near ~4.1%. Utilities caught a bid as Constellation’s nuclear restart plans advanced.
Sector map: semis firmer; cyclicals softer; defensives mixed. ETF flows hint at caution: International equity funds and longer-term US treasury bonds drew heavy interest.
Scenarios (next 1–2 weeks)
👌 Base Case (Choppy): AI leadership offsets macro jitters; S&P stays range-bound. 10-year holds ~3.9%–4.3%. Fed stays patient into December; data-dependent tone continues. Watch NVDA follow-through, dollar firmness, and next week’s data for direction.
☀️ Bull Case (Calm/Choppy): Yields drift toward ~3.9%; post-NVDA strength broadens beyond megacap tech. ETF flows tilt to growth funds. Softer inflation or dovish Fed speak would add fuel; stable credit spreads help breadth improve.
🌩 Bear Case (Stormy): 10-year pushes above ~4.3%; dollar stays firm. Fed minutes read as less cutting room; growth data wobble or earnings guide-downs sap risk appetite. Outflows from broad equity ETFs accelerate; defensives/mega-caps lead on relative basis.
📝FOMC Meeting Minutes Recap
Fed minutes* show members cut rates by 0.25% to 3.75%–4.00% and agreed to end balance-sheet runoff on Dec. 1, with agency paydowns redirected into Treasury bills. They judged growth moderate, the job market softening, and inflation still somewhat elevated, with two-sided risks.
Most saw additional easing as likely over time but debated a December move. Concerns surfaced about private credit risks and tighter money markets if runoff continued.
Implications: policy is shifting toward neutral, not stimulus; future cuts depend on incoming data and inflation progress. Ending runoff should stabilize money markets and could modestly ease yields, but sticky prices or data surprises may slow or pause cuts.
🔍 Chart of the Week
6,600 Line in the Sand
Symbol: S&P 500 (SPX)
Timeframe: Hourly, 3 months through Nov 19, 2025.
Key levels: Support ~6,600; resistance ~6,750; watch ~6,500 as next support.
Why it matters: Base case assumes range holds; losing 6,600 would flag weaker breadth and caution into month-end. Holding it keeps dip-buyers engaged.
🏠 Wall St. to Main St.
Gas: National average $3.09/gal. Lower oil helps—some relief at pumps.
Energy bills: EIA* expects lower natural-gas use with milder winter—potentially softer heating costs.
Groceries (CPI*): “Food at home” ↑2.7% y/y—still rising, but at a slower rate.
Mortgages: 30-yr fixed near 6.22%–6.24%. Payments eased vs. 2024, but still high.
Rents: Median U.S. rent $1,381, ↓0.9% y/y; third straight monthly dip.
Paychecks: the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker suggests wage gains have cooled from 2022 peaks, easing some inflation pressure.
Used cars: wholesale prices ticked up in mid-November, a small near-term bump for vehicle costs.
A word from Fisher Investments…
7 Actionable Ways to Achieve a Comfortable Retirement
Your dream retirement isn’t going to fund itself—that’s what your portfolio is for.
When generating income for a comfortable retirement, there are countless options to weigh. Muni bonds, dividends, REITs, Master Limited Partnerships—each comes with risk and oppor-tunity.
The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income from Fisher investments shows you ways you can position your portfolio to help you maintain or improve your lifestyle in retirement.
It also highlights common mistakes, such as tax mistakes, that can make a substantial differ-ence as you plan your well-deserved future.
🚪 Weekly Close
Value stocks slipped versus growth, while rate-sensitive pockets steadied as yields cooled midweek. Into next week, the story is data—what arrives, what’s delayed, and what it means for rates.
The BLS canceled October’s jobs report and pushed back November’s, citing the shutdown; the household survey* wasn’t collected, while establishment survey* payrolls will roll into November. Expect markets to lean on weekly claims, PMI “flash” reads, and mortgage-rate updates until the government calendar is fully rebuilt.
What to watch:
Thu, Nov 20 — Weekly Jobless Claims: First look at labor demand; sensitive given recent data gaps.
Thu, Nov 20 — Philly Fed Index: Early November activity pulse for factories.
Thu, Nov 20 — Existing Home Sales (October): Housing turnover lens for brokers, movers, and home-related retail.
Thu, Nov 20 — Walmart earnings (pre-market): Holiday readiness: traffic, pricing, and inventory commentary.
Fri, Nov 21 — S&P Global Flash PMIs & Michigan Sentiment Final: Growth pulse + confidence check to end the week.
Fri, Nov 21 — Univ. of Michigan Sentiment (final): Household confidence into holiday spending.
Wed, Nov 26 — GDP (2nd estimate): Revises U.S. growth picture for Q3.
Wed, Nov 26 — Personal Income/Spending & PCE inflation: Core price trend the Fed watches.
📚 Decoder
Balance-sheet runoff: Fed lets holdings mature without replacement, slowly shrinking its balance sheet.
CPI (Consumer Price Index): Tracks consumer prices across a fixed basket.
EIA: Energy agency tracking oil, gas, and retail fuel prices.
Establishment survey: Employer payroll count behind monthly jobs gain.
Fed minutes (Federal Open Market Committee minutes): Detailed summary of the latest meeting; reveals policy debates and outlook.
Household survey: Poll used to calculate the unemployment rate.
🕔 That wraps up your midweek 5-minute brief. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back before opening bell next Monday, at 7 AM ET. Be on the lookout for your next update from 5 Minute Markets.
Educational only—not investment advice.
Thanks for reading 5 Minute Markets!
