📈 TL;DR — What Moved, What Didn’t
The Fed cut rates by 0.25% on Wednesday. Chair Powell said a December cut isn’t guaranteed. Stocks cooled after the press conference, with the S&P 500 flat on the day while the Nasdaq stayed strongest this week. Earlier record highs helped cushion dips. Small caps lagged.
Treasury yields nudged higher and the dollar firmed, as Gold slipped under $4,000. Bitcoin eased after Monday’s strength. Net takeaway: growth and quality names held up; small, cyclical, and rate-sensitive pockets stayed choppier as earnings and Fed signals drove action more than delayed data.
Quick Levels → Week-to-date change
S&P 500: 6,890.59 | ↑0.66%
Nasdaq 100: 26,119.85 | ↑1.63%
Dow: 47,632.00 | ↑0.46%
Russell 2000: 2,484.81 | ↓1.68%
Gold/oz: $3,965 | ↓3.65%
Bitcoin: $111,380 | ↓2.75%
DXY (U.S. dollar index): 98.73 | ↑0.16%
🚀 Top Movers This Week
Source: Bloomberg
Teradyne (TER) ↑20.56% — Beat Q3, guided well above estimates; AI test demand lifting orders.
Nokia (NOK) ↑16.35% — Soared after Nvidia disclosed a $1B investment and AI partnership to accelerate data-center and 6G networks.
Caterpillar (CAT) ↑12.01% — Results beat; data-center power gear tied to AI spending boosted sales.
Nvidia (NVDA) ↑11.16% — Topped $5T valuation as AI orders and deal headlines stoked demand.
Fiserv (FI) ↓43.60% — Earnings miss and guidance reset triggered record selloff.
😶 Market Mood
The U.S. central bank (FOMC) cut rates 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% target range* and said it will stop shrinking its bond holdings (QT*) on Dec 1. Powell cautioned a December cut isn’t assured. Stocks wobbled; 2-yr yield ~3.58%, 10-yr ~4.06%, and the dollar firmed after the presser.
Meanwhile, Trump–Xi talks signaled a possible cooling in tariff tensions, adding a swing factor for cyclicals and semis. In summary, quality tech holds leadership, but rates and trade headlines keep tape choppy.
Scenarios (next 1–2 weeks)
👌 Base Case (Choppy): Yields drift in a 2-yr 3.40%–3.70% band; dollar stays firm; mega-cap tech leads while small caps lag. December cut odds stabilize near “maybe.” Trade rhetoric noisy but contained.
☀️ Bull Case (Calm): Softer data and friendlier Fed remarks pull 2-yr toward 3.40%; dollar eases; breadth improves, cyclicals catch a bid; constructive Trump–Xi headlines reduce tariff risk premium.
🌩 Bear Case (Spiking): Hot data or hawkish Fed push 2-yr above 3.70%; dollar pops; equities rotate defensive; negative turn in U.S.–China talks revives tariff fears, pressuring semis and industrials.
🔍 Chart of the Week
Symbol: U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield (US02Y)
Timeframe: Daily, last 3 months through Oct 29, 2025
Key levels: 3.45% support (mid-Oct shelf), 3.60% near-term ceiling just retested post-Fed (intraday ~3.61%), 3.70% stretch resistance; deeper support 3.40%.
Why it matters: The 2-yr tracks the path of Fed policy. Staying below ~3.70% keeps our “choppy, tech-led” base case intact; a weekly close above ~3.70% would tighten financial conditions and likely pressure risk assets.
🏠 Wall St. to Main St.
Mortgages: 30-yr fixed ~6.19% (as of Oct 23). Lower rates help refis, but FHA* processing is limited and USDA loans* are largely frozen—closings can slip. IRS/SSA verifications may also slow files.
Groceries: “Food at home” inflation ↑2.7% year-over-year in September. Budgets still tight.
Gas: National average ~$3.04/gal (regular). Slightly below a month ago—small relief.
Shutdown impacts: SNAP* November benefits at risk; WIC* funded only short-term in many states. TSA keeps airports operating (unpaid), and national parks run with limited staff/services or closures. SBA 7(a)/504 lending still paused.
🚪 Weekly Close
Rotation favored quality and cash-rich large caps, while smaller domestically focused names stayed sensitive to shutdown risk and funding headlines. Dollar tone and front-end yields will steer leadership into next week. Credit looks orderly; any spread widening would challenge cyclicals.
Early tells: two-year yield relative to policy band, Treasury’s refunding details, and Friday’s inflation read. If growth data firm but inflation cools, breadth can improve; a firmer dollar plus weaker data likely keeps leadership narrow.
What to watch:
Thu, Oct 30 — Apple earnings: iPhone/Services update could sway mega-cap leadership.
Thu, Oct 30 — Amazon earnings: Cloud and retail margins guide risk appetite into month-end.
Thu, Oct 30 — Initial jobless claims: Labor trend check ahead of next week’s jobs data.
Fri, Oct 31 — Chicago PMI; Univ. of Michigan (final): Activity and inflation expectations update.
Sat, Nov 1 — SNAP issuance: risk date in some states if funding isn’t restored.
Sun, Nov 2 — OPEC+ meeting: Production signals drive gasoline and inflation expectations.
Mon, Nov 3 — ISM Manufacturing PMI: Early November growth signal for factories.
Mon, Nov 3 — Treasury quarterly refunding*: Auction sizes, duration mix, and supply tone.
📚 Decoder
FHA (Federal Housing Administration): Insures mortgages; supports low-down-payment homebuyers.
QT (Quantitative Tightening): Central bank shrinks balance sheet by letting bonds roll off.
SNAP: Food-aid benefits program for low-income households, issued monthly.
Treasury refunding: Quarterly plan and auction sizes to fund federal deficits.
Target range (Fed funds): Band the Fed sets for overnight lending rate.
USDA loans: Government-backed rural mortgages; typically paused during shutdowns.
WIC: Food and nutrition benefits for women, infants, and children.
🕔 That wraps up your midweek 5-minute brief. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back before opening bell next Monday, at 7 AM ET. Be on the lookout for your next update from 5 Minute Markets.
Educational only—not investment advice.
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