📉 TL;DR — What Moved, What Didn’t
Wall Street started the new year with a hangover: stocks slid in holiday-thin trading and closed 2025 lower. Investors did some profit-taking (selling winners to lock in gains) after a strong year powered by AI stocks. Small caps lagged, a sign risk appetite cooled at the margin.
Gold & Silver dropped hard after exchanges raised the cash required to hold futures, which can force selling. Bitcoin was mostly steady midweek, but still finished 2025 in the red as macro headlines stayed loud. The U.S. market is closed today for New Year’s Day and reopens Friday.
Quick Levels → Week-to-date change
S&P 500: 6,845.49 | ↓1.22% Nasdaq 100: 25,249.85 | ↓1.54% Dow: 48,063.28 | ↓1.33% Russell 2000: 2,481.91 | ↓2.07% | Gold /oz: $4,322 | ↓4.65% Silver/oz: $71.64 | ↓9.67% Bitcoin (BTC): $87,802 | ↓0.11% DXY (US Dollar Index): 98.28 | ↑0.23% |
🚀 Top Movers This Week
Source: Thomas A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images
FTAI Aviation (FTAI): ↑13.01% — Rallied after unveiling FTAI Power plan to convert spare jet engines into AI generators.
Silver (XAGUSD) ↓9.67% — CME raised margin requirements; thin holiday liquidity amplified selling after a parabolic 2025 rally.
CoreWeave (CRWV) ↓6.29% — Slid as capital-heavy AI data-center names fell, with leverage worries back in focus.
Tesla (TSLA) ↓5.36% — Dropped as robotaxi deadline doubts and delivery jitters hit sentiment heading into New Year’s.
Coinbase (COIN) ↓4.54% — Fell with bitcoin’s late-December slide, weighing on crypto-exposed stocks into year-end again.
😤 Market Mood
This week’s key “gut-check” was jobless claims*. Claims fell to 199,000, well below estimates. Bonds sold off on the “economy still standing” signal, pushing Treasury yields higher.
Stocks wobbled and ultimately finished the session lower—higher yields tend to cool enthusiasm for pricier growth stocks. Next week is all about business demand: ISM Manufacturing PMI* hits Mon, Jan 5 and ISM Services PMI* follows Wed, Jan 7.
Scenarios (next 1–2 weeks)
👌 Base Case (Choppy): Claims stay low, yields stay firm, and stocks trade sideways. ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI are “okay, not great,” keeping the Fed in wait-and-see mode.
☀️ Bull Case (Calm): ISM Manufacturing PMI improves and price pressures cool. Yields drift lower, which helps growth stocks regain traction. Markets interpret the data as “steady expansion without overheating.”
🌩 Bear Case (Stormy): ISM surprises the wrong way—either weaker demand or hotter prices. Yields jump and stocks reprice quickly. Watch whether higher yields spill into tighter financial conditions (harder borrowing) for businesses.
📝FOMC Minutes Recap
Minutes* from the Dec. 9–10, 2025 FOMC meeting show the Fed cut its policy rate 0.25 point to 3.50%–3.75%, with three dissents. Officials said inflation stayed somewhat elevated, but downside risk to jobs rose as hiring cooled.
Most said more cuts in 2026 would likely be warranted if inflation keeps easing, though some favored a pause after December to read new data. They also expect growth to pick up in 2026, possibly helped by AI-driven productivity. The Fed will also buy Treasury bills to keep bank reserves ample.
🔍 Chart of the Week
VIX — The market’s stress thermometer
Symbol: CBOE Volatility Index* (VIX)
Timeframe: Daily, last 3 months through Dec 31, 2025
Key levels: Support ~13.5, Pivot 15, Stress zone 17.5–18
Why it matters: If VIX stays near 15, the base case is choppy-but-manageable. A dip back toward 13.5 usually lines up with smoother index gains. A push into 17.5–18 is your early warning that traders are buying more protection, and stocks can get jumpier fast.
🏠 Wall St. to Main St.
Housing: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 6.15% in Freddie Mac’s latest weekly survey (as of Dec 31), the lowest of 2025.
At the pump: AAA shows regular gas around $2.83/gal nationally. That’s real breathing room for commuters and road-trippers.
Energy costs: WTI oil is hovering near $58. The EIA also flagged a jump in gasoline inventories, which can help keep prices from spiking.
Rent: Apartment List says median asking rents fell into year-end; vacancies high, concessions back in more cities.
🚪 Weekly Close
This week’s action looked like a quick “leadership check”: defensive sectors (utilities, staples) held up better, while cyclical areas like consumer discretionary and basic materials lagged. Energy was the bright spot.
Into early January, markets tend to trade around two things: fresh economic reports and the first wave of earnings. Big banks kick off results the week of Jan 13–14, which can reset expectations for the whole quarter.
What to watch:
Thu, Jan 1 — U.S. markets closed (New Year’s Day)
Sun, Jan 4 — OPEC+ meeting: supply signals for crude into 1Q.
Mon, Jan 5 — ISM Manufacturing PMI: first big demand read of 2026.
Wed, Jan 7 — ISM Services PMI: services drive inflation; rate-sensitive sectors react.
Wed, Jan 7 — JOLTS* openings: shows labor demand; shapes wage-pressure expectations.
📚 Decoder
FOMC Meeting minutes: Detailed Fed notes; reveals internal debates and future-rate clues.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Factory survey; above 50 expands, below 50 contracts.
ISM Services PMI: Service-sector survey; big for inflation and interest-rate expectations.
Jobless claims: Weekly count of people filing first-time unemployment benefits.
JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey): Tracks openings, quits, layoffs; signals labor demand strength.
VIX (CBOE Volatility Index): Options-based “fear gauge” for stocks; higher readings mean pricier protection.
🕔 That wraps up your midweek 5-minute brief. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back before opening bell next Monday, at 7 AM ET. Be on the lookout for your next update from 5 Minute Markets.
Educational only—not investment advice.
Thanks for reading 5 Minute Markets!
