📈 TL;DR — This Week in 60 Seconds
Stocks edged up after a softer U.S. jobs report: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP*) +22k and unemployment up to 4.3%. Rate-cut odds for Sept. 17 climbed as traders priced a higher chance of easing*. Gold pushed to fresh records near $3,600/oz while the U.S. dollar softened.
Ahead: inflation updates—Producer Price Index (PPI*) on Wednesday and Consumer Price Index (CPI*) on Thursday—likely to steer yields, tech leadership, and the Fed’s next move. Watch any surprises in services prices and corporate guidance. Energy’s drift matters for gasoline into the fall. Bottom line: policy expectations hinge on this week’s inflation prints.
Quick Levels → Last week’s change
S&P 500: 6,481.50 | ↑0.30%
Nasdaq 100: 23,652.44 | ↑1.01%
Dow: 45,400.86 | ↓0.30%
Russell 2000: 2,391.05 | ↑1.00%
Gold/oz: $3,590.00 | ↑4.12%
Bitcoin: $110,724.70 | ↓1.60%
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): 97.77 | ↓0.23%
🚀 Top Movers Last Week
Source: Vincent Feuray/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images
Tesla (TSLA): ↑1.40% — shares jumped on a proposed $1T performance-based pay plan for Elon Musk, after the CEO made ‘genuine’ threats to quit.
Broadcom (AVGO): ↑8.50% — earnings beat and a reported OpenAI chip deal powered a breakout.
Nvidia (NVDA): ↓7.30% — profit-taking as rival AI-chip headlines hit; stock slipped below its 50-day MA*.
Apple (AAPL): ↑3.07% — bid ahead of this week’s iPhone event and AI feature chatter.
Exxon Mobil (XOM): ↓3.63% — energy faded as WTI fell into week’s end.
🗺 Market Map
Rates & the Fed: August jobs added just 22k, pushing rate-cut odds higher into CPI/ PPI this week; yields eased. Watch guidance tone into Sept. 17.
Gold vs. Dollar: Gold hovered near $3,600/oz as the U.S. dollar index (DXY) softened—sensitive to inflation prints.
AI leadership shuffle: Broadcom’s surge contrasts Nvidia’s wobble below key trend lines—rotation risk if “AI winners” broaden.
Energy drift: Crude oil slid late week; EIA’s* outlook flags softer prices ahead—watch gasoline and refinery updates.
🛒 Buy Zone
Long-term investors — “Macro tilt, small steps”: With CPI, PPI, and ECB* in play, stay diversified; on weakness, consider a small equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP)* sleeve to reduce mega-cap concentration. If yields ease and the dollar (DXY) softens, let small/mid-caps grow via rebalancing; if CPI runs hot, pause tilts.
Short-term traders — “Event-driven map”: If CPI cools → watch upside follow-through in broad indexes and gold; if hot → watch defensive rotation and a firmer dollar. Use last week’s range as guardrails; skip first 5–10 minutes; risk small and exit on reversals.
💡 Signal Spotlight
Shelter is the Swing Vote for CPI
Shelter is the CPI ‘swing vote’. It’s a big weight and moves with a lag, so today’s cooler private rent data shows up in CPI later. Apartment List reports August rents dipped and are down year-over-year—supporting slower shelter ahead.
If shelter prints near 0.2% m/m and core CPI cools toward 0.2%–0.25%, odds rise for a bigger Fed move on Sept. 17. If not, a smaller cut is more likely. Watch supercore* services and Friday’s sentiment expectations. Click here to read the full story online.
👀 What to Watch
Wed, Sept 10 — PPI (Aug, 8:30 a.m. ET): Pipeline price pressure for goods and services.
Wed, Sept 10 — US 10-year auction*: Demand shapes yields; a strong bid usually pulls rates down.
Wed–Thu, Sept 10–11 — ECB* meeting/press conference: Policy tone and forecasts drive global yields and dollar.
Thu, Sept 11 — CPI (Aug, 8:30 a.m. ET): Headline, core CPI, and shelter* decide rate cut size narrative.
Thu, Sept 11 — MOMR* (OPEC oil report): Supply/demand tweaks ripple into gas prices and energy stocks.
Fri, Sept 12 — University of Michigan sentiment (prelim, 10 a.m. ET): Check inflation expectations*—key to the Fed’s path.
📚 Decoder
Core CPI: CPI excluding food and energy; shows underlying trend.
CPI (Consumer Price Index): Monthly U.S. inflation gauge for a fixed basket; consumer prices.
Easing (monetary policy): Central bank reduces rates or adds stimulus to support growth.
ECB (European Central Bank): Sets euro area interest rates and guidance.
EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration): Publishes energy data, forecasts, and weekly inventory reports.
Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP): Weights all S&P 500 stocks equally; reduces mega-cap concentration risk.
Fed funds futures: Market-implied path for the Fed’s policy rate.
50-day MA (Moving Average): Average price of last 50 market closes; tracks intermediate trend.
Inflation expectations: Surveyed views of future inflation; guide wage/price setting.
MOMR (OPEC report): Monthly oil outlook on supply, demand, inventories.
PPI (Producer Price Index): Wholesale prices; hints at future consumer inflation; producer prices.
Shelter: Rent and owners’ equivalent rent; ~one-third of CPI.
Supercore: Services excluding housing and energy; policy-sensitive slice.
10-year auction: Treasury sale of 10-year notes; affects mortgage rates.
🕔 That’s your 5-minute guide to start the week. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back to check-in on Thursday at 7 AM ET.
Educational only—not investment advice.
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