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📈 TL;DR — What Moved, What Didn’t
Stocks did a whiplash: Tuesday’s tariff scare hit risk assets, then Wednesday’s rally followed news the White House shelved planned tariffs on NATO allies after a framework for a future Greenland agreement was reached. Traders leaned into the TACO trade*, buying the selloff on the bet the threat would fade.
Small caps led the rebound, while megacap tech improved but stayed choppy. Regional-bank earnings added some relief, and energy caught a bid with natural gas spiking. Gold & Silver stayed near record highs as investors still wanted insurance. The U.S. dollar is down this week.
Quick Levels → Week-to-date change
S&P 500: 6,875.61 | ↑0.18% Nasdaq 100: 25,326.58 | ↑0.72% Dow: 49,077.24 | ↑0.18% Russell 2000: 2,697.18 | ↑2.38% | Gold/oz: $4,824 | ↑4.97% Silver/oz: $93.31 | ↑3.55% Bitcoin (BTC): $89,963 | ↓3.92% DXY (US Dollar Index): 98.79 | ↓0.66% |
🚀 Top Movers This Week
Source: Blue Origin
SanDisk (SNDK) ↑21.20% — Citi hiked price target ~75%; NAND flash demand story keeps getting hotter.
Moderna (MRNA) ↑19.08% — Strong trial update with Merck sparked a biotech bid and short covering*.
Intel (INTC) ↑15.52% — New-CEO optimism + bullish “AI powerhouse” talk sparked a big chip-sector squeeze.
AMD (AMD) ↑7.75% — Rose in sympathy with Intel-led chip rally; investors leaned into AMD’s AI-server CPU demand.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) ↓10.60% — Pulled back as traders locked in gains after a run, while digesting financing chatter and Blue Origin’s new satellite-network ambitions.
3M (MMM) ↓7.10% — Greenland-linked tariff threats raised earnings risk, and investors hit the sell button.
😶 Market Mood
This week has felt like a tug-of-war: small caps surged while the biggest tech names stayed heavy. The Russell 2000’s midweek jump stands out, and it fits the “rotation” story—money spreading out beyond the mega-caps. This week’s sector scoreboard looks more “value” than “viral”: Energy ↑ and Utilities ↑, while Technology ↓.
Volatility cooled—VIX* slid from ~20 to the high-teens—and the 10-year Treasury yield eased toward ~4.25%. That mix usually means choppy trading: strength shows up, then profits get taken. ETF inflows were nearly $60B last week, so long-term money is still leaning in.
Scenarios (next 1–2 weeks)
👌 Base Case (Choppy): VIX stays 15–20, yields hover near ~4.3%, and indexes grind sideways while earnings guidance does the heavy lifting. A “rotate, don’t panic” tape: energy/defensives lead, tech stabilizes.
☀️ Bull Case (Calm): GDP/jobless claims come in “good, not too hot,” yields drift lower, and VIX slips toward 15. That opens the door for a broader rebound—especially in rate-sensitive growth.
🌩 Bear Case (Spiking): Data surprises higher and pushes yields back up; VIX pops above 20. Traders de-risk fast, tech drags, and small caps give back recent leadership.
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🔍 Chart of the Week
S&P 500 Chops
Symbol: S&P 500 (SPX)
Timeframe: Daily, last 3 months through Jan 21, 2026
Key levels: Resistance 6,900–6,950 | Support 6,750 (then 6,600)
Why it matters: Base case says “choppy but okay”—SPX near 6,875 is close enough to resistance that GDP/jobs can decide breakout vs. pullback. A hold above 6,750 keeps the trend intact.
🏠 Wall St. to Main St.
Mortgage rates: The average 30-year fixed rate is 6.06% (Freddie Mac), still a headwind for buyers and refinancers.
Gas: AAA’s national average is about $2.84/gal, which helps commuting costs and keeps delivery surcharges calmer.
Oil: WTI is around $59–61. If it stays there, spring travel season gets a little less expensive.
Housing pulse: Pending home sales fell 9.3% in December, signaling spring demand may need help.
How people feel: Michigan’s final January consumer sentiment lands Friday (Jan 23) —a live read on wallets and confidence
🚪 Weekly Close
This week’s rotation looked like “real-economy winners” getting love: energy and financials outpaced as traders responded to commodity moves and bank results. Tech-heavy names were more of a weight, and crypto took a breather after a hot start to the year.
The next step is whether the market can hold onto gains once the calendar turns loud: key inflation and growth prints, then a Fed decision and mega-cap earnings. If results calm nerves, the rally can broaden; if not, expect sharper pullbacks.
What to watch:
Thu, Jan 22 — GDP* Q3 2025 (updated estimate): growth revision can move rates.
Thu, Jan 22 — Personal Income & Outlays* + Core PCE (Oct/Nov): inflation/spending strength check after shutdown delays.
Thu, Jan 22 — Intel earnings: key read on PC + AI chip demand.
Thu, Jan 22 — Initial jobless claims: quick read on layoffs and rate expectations.
Fri, Jan 23 — S&P Global Flash PMI*: fast snapshot of early 2026 activity and pricing.
Fri, Jan 23 — Michigan Consumer Sentiment (January): confidence clues for spending momentum.
Tue–Wed, Jan 27–28 — Fed meeting: policy signal drives stocks, bonds, dollar.
Wed–Thu, Jan 28–29 — Microsoft & Apple earnings: Big Tech direction for Q1 risk appetite.
📚 Decoder
GDP (Gross Domestic Product): Total value of goods/services produced; key growth scorecard.
Personal Income & Outlays: Tracks household income and spending; hints at consumer strength.
PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index): Business survey; above 50 signals expansion, below 50 contraction.
Short covering: Short sellers buy back shares, pushing prices up quickly.
T.A.C.O. trade: Market trend; “Trump Always Chickens Out”—buy dips expecting threats to fade.
VIX: Market’s implied volatility gauge; higher suggests bigger expected stock swings.
🕔 That wraps up your midweek 5-minute brief. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back before opening bell next Monday, at 7 AM ET. Be on the lookout for your next update from 5 Minute Markets.
Educational only—not investment advice.
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