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📈 TL;DR — What Moved, What Didn’t
Silver and Gold stole the show: spot prices jumped as the U.S. dollar slipped and investors leaned defensive. The S&P 500 briefly cleared 7,000 intraday, then cooled. Big tech led; the Nasdaq 100 outpaced as investors paid up for “quality” profits. Small caps slipped as higher borrowing costs pinch smaller firms first.
The Federal Reserve held its policy rate, keeping the federal funds rate* target range at 3.50%–3.75%; two officials voted for a cut. The market heard “no rush” more than “cuts soon.” Earnings were the other loudspeaker this week, with guidance moving stocks more than the actual numbers. Bond yields firmed after the statement, and the dollar’s drop supercharged the metals rally.
Quick Levels → Week-to-date change
S&P 500: 6,978.02 | ↑0.90% Nasdaq 100: 26,022.79 | ↑1.63% Dow: 49,015.61 | ↓0.17% Russell 2000: 2,653.55 | ↓0.58% | Gold/oz: $5,530 | ↑10.88% Silver/oz: $117.40 | ↑13.57% Bitcoin (BTC): $88,300| ↑1.97% DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): 96.34 | ↓1.15% |
🚀 Top Movers This Week
Seagate (STX) ↑27.98% — Blowout quarter and upbeat forecast as AI storage demand tightens drive prices higher.
Gold Fields (GFI) ↑15.58% — Gold ripped to record highs as dollar slid; miners caught a fresh bid.
Nextpower (NXT) ↑14.26% — Raised outlook and launched $500M share buyback after strong earnings beat, bookings jumped.
Zoom (ZM) ↑12.17% — Analysts spotlighted its Anthropic stake; “hidden AI value” talk pushed shares higher.
Carvana (CVNA) ↓13.37% — Short-seller Gotham report flagged related-party questions; Carvana denied it, but investors hit sell first, ask later.
😶 Market Mood
Source: Federal Reserve Bank
Markets leaned mixed after Wednesday’s Fed decision left rates unchanged, and investors focused more on “when cuts restart” than “more hikes.” The U.S. dollar kept sliding toward fresh lows, which tends to lift commodity pricing power and overseas earnings when translated back to dollars.
Meanwhile, big Tech earnings did the heavy lifting: Microsoft beat, but spending plans spooked some traders; Meta’s results impressed, with AI investment still the headline. Apple reports Thursday, so “mega-cap mood” isn’t settled yet. Next test is Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI)*—a surprise here can quickly reprice rate-cut expectations.
Scenarios (next 1–2 weeks)
👌 Base Case (Calm): Rates stay on hold, PPI lands near expectations, and earnings season stays “good enough,” and the dollar drifts lower. That mix keeps pressure on the dollar and supports gold/commodities while stocks grind higher—led by profitable Tech.
☀️ Bull Case (Choppy): PPI runs cooler and Big Tech guidance reassures investors that AI spending is translating into real sales, and the weaker dollar adds a tailwind for multinationals. Yields ease, risk appetite improves, and more sectors start participating.
🌩 Bear Case (Stormy): PPI comes in hot and pushes yields up fast. Add any “AI costs rising faster than revenue” vibes from Big Tech, and the market could de-risk quickly from crowded winners. If the dollar suddenly snaps back up, the gold/commodity bid cools and stocks can wobble hard.
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🔍 Chart of the Week
A Softer Dollar
Symbol: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)*
Timeframe: Daily, last 6 months through Jan 28, 2026
Key Levels: Support ~95.55 (recent low) | Resistance ~97.65, then 99.50 (recent pivot)
Quick Takeaway: If DXY stays below ~97.65, the “soft dollar” tailwind can keep risk assets and gold supported. A sharp bounce toward ~99.50 could pressure equities and cool the AI trade.
🏠 Wall St. to Main St.
Gas: The national average was $2.88/gal on Jan 28—a small win for commutes and deliveries.
Mortgages: The average 30-year fixed rate sat around 6.09% (latest weekly reading). That keeps “starter home” math tight.
Dollar: A softer DXY can make imports (electronics, coffee, vacations abroad) pricier, while helping U.S. firms selling overseas.
Gold & silver: High prices can mean pricier jewelry and coins, better “scrap” payouts, and slightly higher costs for electronics/solar gear that use silver.
🚪 Weekly Close
This week’s action looked like “big, profitable, global” won the beauty contest. Mega-cap tech drove the tone, while smaller companies lagged—investors still prefer growth that doesn’t rely heavily on refinancing. The other loud message: commodities loved the weaker dollar, with gold staying in the spotlight as a hedge.
The question, is whether AI spending (capex*) keeps paying off fast enough to justify premium prices. The market’s mood will also hinge on jobs data and business surveys—because rate expectations still steer the wheel.
What to watch:
Thu, Jan 29 — Apple earnings: big read on consumer demand, and direction for Q1 risk appetite.
Thu, Jan 29 — Jobless claims + productivity: jobs cooling vs. inflation stickiness narrative check.
Thu, Jan 29 — US Trade balance: feeds GDP* math and dollar expectations.
Fri, Jan 30 — PPI (Dec): key wholesale inflation data; can nudge rate expectations quickly.
Mon, Feb 2 — ISM Manufacturing PMI: checks the factory economy’s pulse.
Tue, Feb 3 — JOLTS* job openings: hiring demand check.
Wed, Feb 4 — ADP jobs + ISM Services: labor and services momentum.
📚 Decoder
Capex: Company spending on long-term projects like factories or data centers.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): Measures dollar versus a basket of major currencies.
Fed funds rate: Overnight rate banks charge each other; guides borrowing costs.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product): Total value of goods/services produced; key growth scorecard.
JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey): U.S. jobs report; tracks labor market tightness.
PPI (Producer Price Index): Measures inflation at the wholesale level.
🕔 That wraps up your midweek 5-minute brief. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back before opening bell next Monday, at 7 AM ET. Be on the lookout for your next update from 5 Minute Markets.
Educational only—not investment advice.
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