📉 TL;DR — What Moved, What Didn’t
The U.S. central bank cut rates, and markets gave a polite nod: stocks are mixed, not euphoric. Long-term Treasury yields eased toward ~4.07%, helping value and dividends a bit more than mega-growth.
The dollar slipped week-to-date, while gold and bitcoin pushed higher. Net: S&P 500 is flat, Dow and small caps are modestly up, and the Nasdaq 100 is only slightly green after a choppy Fed day.
Quick Levels → Week-to-date change
S&P 500: 6,600.35 | ↓0.05%
Nasdaq 100: 24,223.69 | ↑0.19%
Dow: 46,018.32 | ↑0.37%
Russell 2000: 2,407.01 | ↑0.17%
Gold/oz: 3,669.21 | ↑0.68%
Bitcoin (BTC): 116,425.90 | ↑0.96%
DXY (Dollar Index): 96.87 | ↓0.78%
🏦 FOMC Summary: Fed Finally Cuts
Fed cut the federal funds rate 0.25 percentage point to 4.00%–4.25%, citing moderated growth, slower job gains, and inflation still somewhat elevated. The statement says downside risks to employment have increased. Balance-sheet runoff* continues.
Future moves will be data-dependent, assessing inflation, labor, and global conditions. The vote was 11–1, with Stephen Miran dissenting for a 0.50-point cut. The Committee reiterated commitment to maximum employment and 2% inflation and readiness to adjust policy if risks emerge.
🚀 Top Movers This Week
Source: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Lyft (LYFT): ↑22.66% — Popped on Waymo robotaxi pact for Nashville; AV fleet support deal.
Tesla (TSLA) | ↑7.56% — Musk bought ≈$1B in shares; AI pivot back in focus.
Workday (WDAY): ↑5.14% — Activist Elliott disclosed ~$2B stake; AI deal + buyback support.
Nvidia (NVDA): ↓4.23% — Slipped after reports China told firms to pause Nvidia AI chip buys.
Global X Uranium ETF (URA): ↑5.95% — Uranium ETF jumps as U.S. plans strategic reserve; spot prices remain firm.
Alphabet (GOOGL) | ↑3.63% — Joined the $3T club after favorable antitrust ruling; AI tailwinds.
😶 Market Mood
Stocks are rotating, not racing. Financials* and industrials* outperformed while mega-cap tech eased. Yields nudged around 10-year ~4.07% and 2-year ~3.55%.
The Fed cut rates and its dot-plot* (officials’ rate projections) signaled a 2025 median policy rate near 3.6%, stepping down to 3.4% in 2026. U.S. equity ETFs saw early-week outflows, while bond funds drew cash.
Scenarios (next 1–2 weeks)
👌 Base Case (60%, Choppy): Yields drift sideways; 10-year holds ~3.9%–4.2%. Rotation toward financials/industrials persists; tech consolidates as investors digest dot-plot path and guidance. Watch breadth and credit spreads for confirmation.
☀️ Bull Case (25%, Calm): Cooler inflation or softer jobs pushes 10-year toward ~3.8%; broader rally resumes, led by rate-sensitives and equal-weight indices.
🌩 Bear Case (15%, Stormy): Stickier data or hawkish Fed remarks lift 10-year above ~4.3%; multiple compression hits tech and high-beta shares first.
🏠 Wall St. to Main St.
Mortgages: 30-year fixed sits near 6.35%; last week saw the biggest weekly drop in a year. Refi apps surged. Good for would-be movers and homeowners eyeing a payment reset.
Gas: National average around $3.20/gal. Seasonal demand fade plus steady supply = slight relief at pumps.
Groceries: August food-at-home rose 0.6% m/m and 2.7% y/y; fruits/veggies and meats led gains. Plan for stickier cart totals.
Rents: National median rent down 0.2% m/m in August; −0.9% y/y. Renewals may have bargaining room.
Paychecks: Wage Growth Tracker at 4.1% y/y in August; job-switcher gains ticked up. Helps offset prices, but uneven.
Plastic: Avg credit-card APR near 20.12%; retail cards average 30.14%. Avoid balances; promos can backfire.
🚪 Weekly Close
Rotation favored steady cash flows: defensives (staples, utilities) and dividend payers found buyers as investors weighed slower growth and lower rates, while high-beta pockets cooled midweek.
Into next week, watch if inflows broaden beyond mega-cap tech and if small-caps keep pace as borrowing costs ease.
Upcoming catalysts:
Thu, Sept 18 – Weekly jobless claims & Philly Fed: Fresh read on hiring and factory momentum; surprises sway yields.
Fri, Sept 19 – Energy data (nat gas storage): Guides winter fuel dynamics; trickles into utility bills.
Fri, Sept 19 – Fed’s Mary Daly speaks (2:30 PM ET): Post-cut color on policy path; watch rate expectations.
Tue/Wed, Sept 23–24 – S&P Global Flash PMIs: First September read on services/manufacturing costs and orders.
Thu, Sept 25 – Existing Home Sales (Aug): Rates fell; watch if buyers re-engage.
Fri, Sept 26 – Personal Income & Spending + Core PCE* (Aug): The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—key for the next cut debate.
Fri, Sept 26 – Durable Goods Orders* (Aug, prelim): Business capex pulse; implications for industrials.
📚 Decoder
Balance-sheet runoff: Fed reducing bond holdings by letting securities mature without reinvestment.
Durable goods orders: Monthly orders for long-lasting manufactured items; capex proxy.
Financials: Sector of banks, insurers, lenders, brokers, asset managers, exchanges; rate-sensitive.
Flash PMI: Early monthly survey of business activity across sectors.
Industrials: Sector including machinery, aerospace/defense, transportation, construction services; tied to economic cycles.
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures): Fed-favored inflation gauge tracking consumer spending prices.
🕔 That wraps up your midweek 5-minute brief. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back before opening bell next Monday, at 7 AM ET. Meanwhile, be sure to check out our “3 after 5” weekly recap online Saturday afternoon.
Educational only—not investment advice.
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