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📈 TL;DR — What Moved, What Didn’t
The U.S. central bank (FOMC*) cut rates by 0.25% yesterday. Stocks cheered into the close, led by small caps. The U.S. dollar slipped, and Treasury yields eased as markets penciled in a cautious path for 2026. Gold firmed and Bitcoin chopped.
The Fed’s statement and Chair Powell’s remarks signaled divisions on the committee, so future cuts may be slower. Read the meeting recap below for more info. Net: cheaper money helped risk assets for the day, while bonds priced a softer path ahead.
Quick Levels → Week-to-date change
S&P 500: 6,886.69 | ↑0.24%
Nasdaq 100: 25,776.44 | ↑0.33%
Dow: 48,057.76 | ↑0.21%
Russell 2000: 2,559.61 | ↑1.51%
Gold/oz: $4,213 | ↑0.36%
Bitcoin (BTC): $90,243 | ↓0.18%
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 98.64 | ↓0.35%
🚀 Top Movers This Week
EchoStar (SATS) ↑26.80% — Speculation on 2026 SpaceX IPO and spectrum-for-equity deals; Morgan Stanley upgrade added fuel.
GE Vernova (GEV) ↑14.52% — Raised multi-year guidance, doubled dividend, and expanded buybacks; AI-driven power demand lifted sentiment.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) ↑13.23% — Bidding war hopes rise as Paramount’s all-cash offer competes with Netflix’s bid.
Micron (MU) ↑11.17% — Price-target hikes and DRAM/HBM demand optimism ahead of next week’s earnings drove strong bids + Citi lifted target to $300.
AeroVironment (AVAV) ↓11.90% — Record sales, but EPS miss and trimmed profit outlook sparked a sharp pullback.
Oracle (ORCL) ↓11.23% — Earnings and guidance disappointed and bigger AI data-center capex stoked margin worries (% change reflects Wed. after-hours plunge).
🏛️ Fed Meeting Recap
Source: Federal Reserve
The Fed cut rates 0.25% to 3.50%–3.75% after a split vote (one favored a bigger cut; two wanted no change). It also plans short-term Treasury purchases ($40B/mo) to keep bank reserves ample—an implementation step, not new easing.
The new Summary of Economic Projections and “dot plot” show a median path for the policy rate at 3.6% (end-2025), 3.4% (2026), and 3.1% (2027); PCE inflation medians are 2.9% (2025) and 2.4% (2026).
Powell said policy is not on a preset course; decisions will be meeting-by-meeting. Markets approved: stocks rose (Russell 2000 ↑1.32%, S&P 500 ↑0.68%), and the dollar fell (DXY ↓0.6%).
😎 Market Mood
Stocks leaned risk-on midweek as traders digested the Fed’s move and rotated toward cyclicals; industrials and materials outperformed while utilities lagged. The dollar weakened, loosening financial conditions. JOLTS* showed job openings unchanged at 7.7 million with quits at 2.9 million, signaling cooler labor demand without a crack.
Next up: CPI* for November lands Thu, Dec 18 at 8:30 AM ET, a fresh read on inflation’s glide path. Tech flows were mixed, but QQQ still showed 5-day net inflows, hinting dip-buyers remain active.
Scenarios (next 1–2 weeks)
👌 Base Case (Calm): Inflation cools modestly; yields and the dollar stay contained; cyclicals keep a slight edge while megacaps tread water. CPI near expectations preserves this drift. Watch sector breadth and credit spreads for confirmation.
☀️ Bull Case (Choppy): CPI undershoots; 10-year yield dips again; dollar softens; breadth broadens with small-caps leading. Housing and industrials extend gains; tech re-accelerates on lower-rate sensitivity. ETF inflows to broad equity funds re-intensify.
🌩 Bear Case (Stormy): CPI surprises hot; yields back up; dollar rebounds. Defensives outperform as cyclicals and small-caps fade. A rise in jobless claims or credit stress would add fuel to risk-off pressure. Watch utilities and staples leadership.
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🔍 Chart of the Week
Silver record highs: Strong trend, big air-pocket risk
Symbol: Silver (XAGUSD)
Timeframe: Daily, 6 months through Dec 10, 2025
Key levels: $63–60 (record/supply zone), $55 (first support), $50 (last retest zone), $45 (deeper support).
Why it matters: Dollar weakness & increased tech demand has this precious metal structurally bullish, but extended. Holding above $55 keeps the uptrend aligned with softer yields/dollar base case; a weekly close below $50 risks a 30–50% reset toward $45–42.
🏠 Wall St. to Main St.
Mortgages: 30-year fixed averages ~6.19%, easing monthly payments versus summer peaks. Refi math starts to pencil if rates drift lower.
Gas: National average sits below $3; a little extra room for holiday budgets.
Credit cards: New-offer APRs hover near ~23.96%—prioritize high-rate balances.
Variable debt: The prime rate fell to 6.75% after the Fed move—HELOCs* and many credit cards should edge down in coming bills.
Wages vs prices: Real hourly earnings up 0.8% y/y (Sept). Purchasing power inching higher.
🚪 Weekly Close
Week-to-date, breadth improved: small caps outpaced large caps while cyclicals perked up as rates eased. The 10-year yield’s drift lower helped interest-sensitive pockets (homebuilders, transports) and tempered volatility.
Flows remain a tailwind—U.S. ETFs took in $44.2B last week, the strongest since mid-year. Into Friday, watch whether leadership broadens beyond mega-cap tech and whether dollar softness persists.
What to watch:
Thu, Dec 11 — Weekly Jobless claims: Fresh read on layoffs and hiring pace.
Thu, Dec 11 — Fed balance sheet: Liquidity trends contextualize financial conditions.
Thu, Dec 11 (after close) — Broadcom earnings: AI networking/ASIC orders; capex signals.
Fri, Dec 12 — Fed starts T-bill buys: Liquidity support; watch money-market ripple effects.
Fri, Dec 12 — Fed speeches (Paulson; Hammack; Goolsbee): first post-meeting policy read.
Thu, Dec 18 — CPI (November): Key inflation check before the holidays.
Fri, Dec 19 — Quadruple witching: expirations can lift volume and volatility.
📚 Decoder
CPI (Consumer Price Index): Monthly gauge of consumer inflation across many goods/services.
FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee): Fed’s rate-setting group guiding U.S. monetary policy.
HELOC (Home-Equity Line of Credit): Revolving credit line secured by your home, with variable rates.
JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey): Tracks openings, hires, quits to gauge demand.
🕔 That wraps up your midweek 5-minute brief. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back before opening bell next Monday, at 7 AM ET. Be on the lookout for your next update from 5 Minute Markets.
Educational only—not investment advice.
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