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📉 TL;DR — What Moved, What Didn’t
Tech got punched again. A global software-and-services slide has erased nearly $1T in market value since Jan 28, and it’s dragging the Nasdaq 100 lower. The catalyst: messy tech earnings and fresh anxiety that new AI tools could squeeze software pricing. AMD’s weak sales outlook didn’t help.
The S&P 500 is down week-to-date, but most stocks inside it are holding up—rotation into industrials, energy, and healthcare is keeping the Dow positive. Bitcoin slid as risk appetite softened. Gold jumped as a safety blanket, and the U.S. dollar firmed. One extra spark: Anthropic’s new AI legal tool re-ignited “AI vs software” fears, hitting data and legal-tech names and adding to the tech wobble.
Quick Levels → Week-to-date change
S&P 500: 6,882.71 | ↓0.81% Nasdaq 100: 24,891.24 | ↓2.59% Dow: 49,501.31 | ↑1.25% Russell 2000: 2,624.55 | ↑0.41% | Gold/oz: $4,924 | ↑0.58% Silver/oz: $80.75 | ↓5.21% Bitcoin (BTC): $71,248 | ↓7.37% U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 97.64 | ↑0.51% |
🚀 Top Movers This Week
Source: AMD
Westlake Corporation (WLK) ↑21.03% — Broke above its 200-day moving average*; momentum and upgrades fueled a sharp squeeze.
FedEx Corporation (FDX) ↑12.50% — Analyst upgrades ahead of investor day, plus AI and freight spinoff buzz, lifted shares.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) ↑11.20% — Q4 profit beat on strong refining margins; company highlighted new Gulf Coast projects and buybacks.
Southwest Airlines (LUV) ↑10.67% — Assigned seating and new fees plan raised profit hopes; stock hit highs.
Eli Lilly (LLY) ↑6.75% — Zepbound and Mounjaro sales surged; 2026 outlook raised after a big beat.
AMD (AMD) ↓15.44% — Earnings beat, but weaker revenue outlook and AI-chip competition fears pushed the stock sharply lower.
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😶 Market Mood
Markets spent the week reacting to data prints and corporate guidance. ISM Manufacturing PMI* jumped to 52.6 (back above 50), while ISM Services held at 53.8—still growing, but new orders cooled. Mega-cap earnings stayed noisy: Alphabet’s 2026 capex* outlook spooked investors even with strong results.
Jobs headlines added fog: ADP showed only 22,000 private jobs in January, and the BLS Employment Situation (NFP)* is delayed by the shutdown until Feb 11. ETFs saw big one-day inflows on Feb 3, hinting buyers still show up on dips.
Scenarios (next 1–2 weeks)
👌 Base Case (Choppy): With the jobs report on pause, traders trade ranges: slower hiring signals but no recession vibe. Manufacturing rebound helps cyclicals, while tech digests capex. Volatility stays elevated but contained unless Washington extends the shutdown.
☀️ Bull Case (Calm): Government funding resumes quickly, the rescheduled NFP lands near expectations, and more mega-caps beat without scary spending plans. Buyers rotate back into growth, pushing indexes toward recent highs and pulling VIX* lower.
🌩 Bear Case (Stormy): Shutdown drags on, data gaps widen, and another mega-cap warns on demand or margins. The market re-prices for slower profits, credit spreads* widen, and VIX pushes above 20—often the line between nervous and stressed.
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🔍 Chart of the Week
Measuring volatility
Symbol: CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
Timeframe: Daily, last 3 months through Feb 4, 2026
Key Levels: 16 (calmer), 20 (uneasy), 25 (stress)
Quick Takeaway: With VIX ~18.64, our base case is choppy—not crisis—unless it breaks and holds above 20.
🏠 Wall St. to Main St.
Gas: The national average for regular is $2.89/gal—a small win for commuters.
Shipping: Diesel is still ~$3.64/gal, which matters for trucking costs.
Mortgages: The latest Freddie Mac read has the 30-year fixed at 6.10% (as of Jan 29), so “rate relief” is still slow.
Oil’s tug-of-war: WTI has been bouncing in the low-to-mid $60s, and Middle East headlines can move it fast.
Inflation check-in: The next CPI* print is Fri, Feb 13 after a shutdown reshuffle.
🚪 Weekly Close
This week’s tape looked like a split-screen: AI-linked chips and software took the bruises, while “boring” corners of the market did more of the heavy lifting. A fresh wave of selling in tech (AMD, Qualcomm) and a broader software slump pulled momentum down, even as other groups stayed steadier.
Volatility didn’t explode—but it stayed high enough to keep traders cautious into next week’s rescheduled data.
What to watch:
Thu, Feb 5 — JOLTS*: Openings trend is a clean signal on hiring momentum.
Thu, Feb 5 — Weekly jobless claims: Spikes can spark a quick “risk-off” move.
Thu, Feb 5 — U.S. Treasury quarterly refunding: Borrowing plan can ripple through bond markets.
Thu-Fri, Feb 5-6 — Fed speak (Bostic, Jefferson): Tone could sway rate-cut timing.
Fri, Feb 6 — University of Michigan sentiment: Spending mood check.
Wed, Feb 11 — NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls): Delayed January jobs report; big swing factor.
Fri, Feb 13 — CPI: Delayed January inflation print; key for mortgage rates.
📚 Decoder
200-day moving average: Average price over 200 days; common trend support/resistance level.
Capex: Company spending on long-term projects like factories or data centers.
CPI (Consumer Price Index): Monthly inflation gauge; hotter prints can push rates higher.
Credit spreads: Gap between corporate and Treasury borrowing costs; wider means more worry.
JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey): U.S. jobs report; tracks labor market tightness.
NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls): Monthly U.S. jobs report excluding farm workers; moves rate expectations.
PMI: Survey index of business activity; 50 splits growth from contraction.
VIX (CBOE Volatility Index): Market’s “fear gauge”; higher = bigger expected S&P 500 swings.
🕔 That wraps up your midweek 5-minute brief. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back before opening bell next Monday, at 7 AM ET. Be on the lookout for your next update from 5 Minute Markets.
Educational only—not investment advice.
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