📈 TL;DR – Last Week in 60 Seconds
A tariff shock rattled markets: stocks logged their worst single day since April after a 100% China tech-tariff threat, capping a down week for all major indexes. Gold punched to fresh records above $4,000 as investors hid in havens. Bitcoin tumbled into the weekend before stabilizing Sunday.
The U.S. dollar firmed into Monday’s Asia trade. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.06%, keeping financial conditions tight. Futures bounced late Sunday after calmer White House remarks, but the tone remains fragile heading into a headline-heavy week.
Quick Levels → Last week’s change
S&P 500: 6,552.51 | ↓2.69%
Nasdaq 100: 24,221.74 | ↓3.06%
Dow: 45,479.60 | ↓2.77%
Russell 2000: 2,394.59 | ↓3.80%
Gold/oz: $4,016.68 | ↑3.35%
Bitcoin: $115,128.32 | ↓6.79%
DXY (U.S. dollar): 98.85 | ↑1.17%
Source: ast-science.com
🚀 Top Movers Last Week
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): ↑21.06% — Verizon partnership fueled “direct-to-cell” excitement and satellite-stock momentum. Big theme: coverage from space to standard phones.
QUALCOMM (QCOM) | ↓9.22% — China antitrust headlines plus tariff risk hit China-exposed revenues.
Bitcoin (BTC): ↓6.79% — Weekend flash crash as tariff headlines met weak momentum and thin liquidity.
Energy Select Sector (XLE): ↓4.15% — Energy stocks lagged; sector ETF slid on the week amid oil volatility.
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): ↓3.37% — Export-control talk and chip-tariff fears pressured the AI supply chain.
🗺 Market Map
Tariffs return to center stage. On Oct 10, President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting Nov 1; Beijing vowed “corresponding measures.” Semis and megacaps led Friday’s slump; futures steadied after softer remarks.
Data blackout complicates the read. A federal shutdown paused key reports; September CPI now due Oct 24. With payrolls delayed, investors lean on private gauges while volatility tracks headlines.
Crypto spillover watch. A $19B weekend wipeout and momentum breaks flagged leverage unwind risk; watch for knock-on effects to high-beta stocks early this week.
Supply chains in focus. China’s rare earths squeeze threat raises cost risk for tech/EV makers; markets will parse any U.S.–China de-escalation signs before repricing manufacturing margins.
🛒 Buy Zone
Long-term investors — Tilt toward “made-in-America” builders—industrial equipment, electrical gear, and grid/data-center suppliers set to benefit from re-shoring* and factory upgrades. Favor companies with pricing power and low China revenue. Guardrail: watch gross margins and backlog trends on earnings this week.
Short-term traders — Semi supply chain is headline-sensitive post-tariff shock. Look for failed bounces into resistance on tariff headlines; consider tight stops below last week’s lows and scale risk small ahead of bank/TSMC prints.
💡 Signal Spotlight
Why last week’s China tariff threat matters.
The U.S. threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods after Beijing tightened rare-earths exports. Washington later softened tone, but markets now price higher supply-chain and earnings risk. First-order hit: import-heavy sectors; potential beneficiary: domestic suppliers. Watch for Section 301 details and any Chinese response. Bottom line: more policy noise, fatter tail-risks, and a stronger case for diversification plus selective “made-here” exposure.
👀 What to Watch
All week — Big bank earnings (JPMorgan Tue): First read on credit costs, loan growth, and deposit trends; sets season tone.
Mon, Oct 13 — U.S. bond market closed: Liquidity thinner; equities still open and trading normally.
Tue, Oct 14 — Fed Chair Powell speaks + Beige Book* release (Oct 15): clues on growth/inflation mix while official data are delayed.
Wed, Oct 15 — ASML Q3 results: Key read on chip-equipment orders and AI demand.
Thu, Oct 16 — Weekly jobless claims: Fresh check on labor softening or resilience.
Thu, Oct 16 — Retail Sales: Signals goods demand into the holidays; core control group matters for GDP.
Thu, Oct 16 — PMMS* mortgage rates: Fresh snapshot for housing affordability.
Fri, Oct 17 — Univ. of Michigan Sentiment (prelim): Confidence + inflation expectations steer rate-cut odds.
📚 Decoder
Beige Book: Fed’s eight-times-yearly survey of regional business conditions and anecdotes.
Re-shoring: Moving production back home to cut risk and improve resilience.
PMMS: Freddie Mac’s weekly U.S. mortgage rate survey, widely watched benchmark.
🕔 That’s your 5-minute guide to start the week. There’s more info out there…dive in! News is free; risk isn’t.
We’ll be back to check-in on Thursday at 7 AM ET.
Educational only—not investment advice.
A word from Masterworks…
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Why?
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